Rip or Flip
Celebrations Mini Tin

Price Snapshot

Current Market

$44.93

MSRP

$9.99

Spread: +$34.94 (350%) above MSRP

Buy on TCGPlayer →
KEEP SEALEDCelebrations2 packs

Celebrations Mini Tin

Average opening value trails the buy-in by $42.87.

2 packs produce $2.06 of average market value at current prices.

Return vs Market

−95%

Compared with today's sealed market price of $44.93.

Expected Loss

−$42.87

The average opening result after paying $44.93 sealed.

Open Average

$2.06

Average market value from packs and included promos.

Cash-out EV

$1.32

Expected range $0.35-$1.71 per pack.

Prices just now · EV just now · Medium confidence

Price History

Recent sealed price movement for this product.

Sealed History

Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.

How the EV is Calculated

Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.

01

EV per booster pack = $1.03

Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 541 pack openings.

02

$1.03 × 2 packs = $2.06

This product contains 2 booster packs.

03

$2.06 = $2.06

No promo value applied for this product.

04

$2.06 × 0.64 = $1.32

Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.

05

Market: $2.06 ÷ $44.93 = 4.6%Cash-out: $1.32 ÷ $44.93 = 2.9%

Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

EV by Rarity Tier

Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.03 EV per pack for this 2-pack product.

RarityCardsAvg ValuePull RateEV/PackEV/2pk% of Total
Ultra Rare(UR)7$3.5512.80%$0.45$0.9043.7%
Holo Rare(H)17$0.9135.00%$0.32$0.6431.1%
Secret Rare(SR)1$65.440.40%$0.26$0.5225.2%
Total$1.03$2.06100%

Top 10 Cards You Could Pull

The most valuable cards in Celebrations, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.

Assumptions

Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.

Expand assumptions
  • Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced from 541 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/celebrations-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/forums/threads/all-%E2%80%98celebrations%E2%80%99-cards-promos-products-revealed.152588/). Your results will vary.
  • MSRP is $9.99. Current sealed price ($44.93) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
  • Sealed price ($44.93) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
  • Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
  • EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.

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Other Products in This Set

ProductPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Celebrations ETB$319.46$35.29−89%KEEP SEALED
Celebrations PC ETB$532.69$37.35−93%KEEP SEALED
Celebrations Collection$116.54$6.12−95%KEEP SEALED
Celebrations Mini Tin$44.93$2.06−95%KEEP SEALED
Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection$1052.80$37.51−96%KEEP SEALED
Celebrations Premium Figure Collection$228.75$13.24−94%KEEP SEALED
Celebrations Booster Pack$29.75$1.03−97%KEEP SEALED

Compare Tins Across Sets

See how this tin stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.

TinSetPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Ascended Heroes Mini TinAscended Heroes$23.12$14.86−36%KEEP SEALED
Unova Mini TinBlack Bolt$19.57$9.52−51%KEEP SEALED
151 Mini TinPokemon 151$45.41$20.18−56%KEEP SEALED
Shrouded Fable Mini TinShrouded Fable$19.97$7.70−61%KEEP SEALED
Mega Charizard Tin (Y)Multi-Set Products$37.02$12.78−65%KEEP SEALED
Mega Charizard Tin (X)Multi-Set Products$37.69$12.78−66%KEEP SEALED
Paldean Fates TinPaldean Fates$99.18$29.20−71%KEEP SEALED
Paldean Fates Mini TinPaldean Fates$38.79$11.28−71%KEEP SEALED
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