Celebrations Booster Pack
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $28.72.
1 packs produce $1.03 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−97%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $29.75.
Expected Loss
−$28.72
The average opening result after paying $29.75 sealed.
Open Average
$1.03
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$0.66
Expected range $0.35-$1.71 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.03
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 541 pack openings.
$1.03 × 1 packs = $1.03
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$1.03 = $1.03
No promo value applied for this product.
$1.03 × 0.64 = $0.66
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $1.03 ÷ $29.75 = 3.5% • Cash-out: $0.66 ÷ $29.75 = 2.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.03 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 7 | $3.55 | 12.80% | $0.45 | $0.45 | 43.7% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 17 | $0.91 | 35.00% | $0.32 | $0.32 | 31.1% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $65.44 | 0.40% | $0.26 | $0.26 | 25.2% |
| Total | $1.03 | $1.03 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Celebrations, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew (Secret)
#025/025 · SR
1 in 250 packs
$65.44
+$0.26 EV
Pikachu
#005/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$6.97
+$0.14 EV
Flying Pikachu VMAX
#007/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$7.13
+$0.13 EV
Surfing Pikachu VMAX
#009/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$7.08
+$0.13 EV
Mew
#011/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$3.65
+$0.08 EV
Surfing Pikachu V
#008/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$4.24
+$0.08 EV
Lugia
#022/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$0.58
+$0.01 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 541 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/celebrations-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/forums/threads/all-%E2%80%98celebrations%E2%80%99-cards-promos-products-revealed.152588/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($29.75) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($29.75) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrations ETB | $319.46 | $35.29 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations PC ETB | $532.69 | $37.35 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Collection | $116.54 | $6.12 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Mini Tin | $44.93 | $2.06 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection | $1052.80 | $37.51 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Premium Figure Collection | $228.75 | $13.24 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Booster Pack | $29.75 | $1.03 | −97% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $12.38 | $7.43 | −40% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | Black Bolt | $10.16 | $4.76 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Booster Pack | White Flare | $9.51 | $4.37 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Booster Pack | Perfect Order | $6.33 | $2.78 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Pack | Shrouded Fable | $8.94 | $3.85 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order Sleeved Booster | Perfect Order | $6.73 | $2.78 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Perfect Order 3 Pack Blister | Perfect Order | $21.42 | $8.84 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | Phantasmal Flames | $9.19 | $3.75 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |