Celebrations ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $284.17.
10 packs plus $24.99 in promo value produce $35.29 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−89%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $319.46.
Expected Loss
−$284.17
The average opening result after paying $319.46 sealed.
Open Average
$35.29
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$22.59
Expected range $0.35-$1.71 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.03
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 541 pack openings.
$1.03 × 10 packs = $10.30
This product contains 10 booster packs.
$10.30 + $24.99 promos = $35.29
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$35.29 × 0.64 = $22.59
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $35.29 ÷ $319.46 = 11.1% • Cash-out: $22.59 ÷ $319.46 = 7.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.03 EV per pack for this 10-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/10pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 7 | $3.55 | 12.80% | $0.45 | $4.50 | 43.7% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 17 | $0.91 | 35.00% | $0.32 | $3.20 | 31.1% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $65.44 | 0.40% | $0.26 | $2.60 | 25.2% |
| Total | $1.03 | $10.30 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Celebrations, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew (Secret)
#025/025 · SR
1 in 250 packs
$65.44
+$2.60 EV
Pikachu
#005/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$6.97
+$1.40 EV
Flying Pikachu VMAX
#007/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$7.13
+$1.30 EV
Surfing Pikachu VMAX
#009/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$7.08
+$1.30 EV
Mew
#011/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$3.65
+$0.80 EV
Surfing Pikachu V
#008/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$4.24
+$0.80 EV
Lugia
#022/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$0.58
+$0.10 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 541 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/celebrations-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/forums/threads/all-%E2%80%98celebrations%E2%80%99-cards-promos-products-revealed.152588/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($319.46) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($319.46) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($24.99) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrations ETB | $319.46 | $35.29 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations PC ETB | $532.69 | $37.35 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Collection | $116.54 | $6.12 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Mini Tin | $44.93 | $2.06 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection | $1052.80 | $37.51 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Premium Figure Collection | $228.75 | $13.24 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Booster Pack | $29.75 | $1.03 | −97% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |