Mega Evolution
Don't rip Mega Evolution right now.
−51%
$46.82 sealed → $23.05 EV | EV/pack: $2.07
Even the best product loses −$23.77 on average.
If you must open something: Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box loses the least at −$23.77.
Best product to check
Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box
MSRP $21.99 • Market price $46.82 • Return −51%
Set EV History
Recent movement in set-level EV based on current pricing and pull-rate assumptions.
EV Trend
EV per pack and best product return over time.
Best Sealed Products
Browse the current set products sorted by return, price, and market EV.
All 12 Products
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4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Chase Cards
What you could pull from this set, ranked by value.
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132
SIR$169.77
EV: $0.17
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132
SIR$154.72
EV: $0.15
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132
SIR$120.24
EV: $0.12
View 7 more chase cards
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132
MHR$277.33
EV: $0.11
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132
IR$18.32
EV: $0.09
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132
MHR$221.41
EV: $0.09
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132
IR$17.33
EV: $0.09
Mega Latias ex - 181/132
#181/132
SIR$75.36
EV: $0.07
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132
UR$19.74
EV: $0.07
Lillie's Determination - 184/132
#184/132
SIR$73.38
EV: $0.07
Deep Dives
Expandable sections for the EV math, pull-rate tables, and editorial FAQ.
The Math — EV Breakdown & Pull Rates
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Range | Pull Rate | EV/Pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $78.96 | $19.84–$169.77 | 0.99% | $0.78 |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $4.88 | $1.37–$18.32 | 11.10% | $0.54 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $4.88 | $1.25–$19.74 | 8.30% | $0.40 |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $249.37 | $221.41–$277.33 | 0.08% | $0.20 |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.75 | $0.48–$1.31 | 20.00% | $0.15 |
| Total EV / Pack | $2.07 | ||||
| Rarity | Pull Rate | Odds | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare(RR) | 20.00% | 1 in 5 | 5,000 |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 11.10% | 1 in 9 | 5,000 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8.30% | 1 in 12 | 5,000 |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 0.99% | 1 in 101 | 5,000 |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 0.08% | 1 in 1259 | 5,000 |
Sources: https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Mega Evolution worth opening?
- At current market prices, Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box loses $23.77 on average. You are better off keeping it sealed or buying singles directly.
- What is the EV of a Mega Evolution booster pack?
- The expected value of a single Mega Evolution booster pack is $2.07 based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community pull rate data.
- What is the MSRP for Mega Evolution products?
- Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box launched at $21.99 MSRP. Compare that to the current sealed market price of $46.82 to see how far Mega Evolution pricing has moved from retail.
- What are the best cards to pull in Mega Evolution?
- The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution are Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132 ($169.77), Mega Lucario ex - 179/132 ($154.72), Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132 ($120.24).
- How often do you pull a chase card in Mega Evolution?
- Pull rates are based on 5,000 pack openings from community sources. See the pull rate table below for exact odds per rarity tier.
- What is the best Mega Evolution product to buy?
- Based on current EV calculations, Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box offers the best return at −51% (−$23.77). It contains 4 packs and is priced at $46.82.
- How often are Mega Evolution prices updated?
- All prices are updated daily at 21:00 UTC using TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV. EV calculations refresh automatically with each price update.
- What is cash-out EV for Mega Evolution?
- Cash-out EV is the expected value after marketplace fees, shipping, and liquidity discounts. We apply a 0.64x multiplier to market EV. For Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box, cash-out EV is $14.75 versus $23.05 market EV.
- How do pull rates work for Mega Evolution?
- Pull rates represent the probability of pulling each rarity tier from a single booster pack. They are based on 5,000 community pack openings. Each rarity tier has a different pull rate — higher rarities are harder to pull but typically more valuable.
As of March 2026, Mega Evolution products lose an average of $57.27 (−70%) based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community-sourced pull rate data from 5,000+ pack openings.