Mega Evolution ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $57.61.
9 packs plus $7.74 in promo value produce $26.37 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−69%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $83.98.
Expected Loss
−$57.61
The average opening result after paying $83.98 sealed.
Open Average
$26.37
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.88
Expected range $1.24-$2.90 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.07
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$2.07 × 9 packs = $18.63
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$18.63 + $7.74 promos = $26.37
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$26.37 × 0.64 = $16.88
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $26.37 ÷ $83.98 = 31.4% • Cash-out: $16.88 ÷ $83.98 = 20.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.07 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $78.96 | 0.99% | $0.78 | $7.02 | 37.7% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $4.88 | 11.10% | $0.54 | $4.86 | 26.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $4.88 | 8.30% | $0.40 | $3.60 | 19.3% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $249.37 | 0.08% | $0.20 | $1.80 | 9.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.75 | 20.00% | $0.15 | $1.35 | 7.2% |
| Total | $2.07 | $18.63 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$169.77
+$1.53 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$154.72
+$1.35 EV
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$120.24
+$1.08 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$277.33
+$0.99 EV
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$18.32
+$0.81 EV
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$17.33
+$0.81 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$221.41
+$0.81 EV
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$19.74
+$0.63 EV
Vulpix - 138/132
#138/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$12.11
+$0.54 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 160/132
#160/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$14.97
+$0.54 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($83.98) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($83.98) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($7.74) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution Booster Box | $280.25 | $74.52 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box | $268.87 | $74.52 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution ETB | $83.98 | $26.37 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | $178.07 | $84.55 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Bundle | $46.47 | $12.42 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution 3 Pack Blister | $28.50 | $6.71 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister | $11.19 | $2.32 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box | $46.82 | $23.05 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Heroes Mini Tin | $16.94 | $4.14 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Sleeved Booster | $8.59 | $2.07 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Art Bundle | $31.52 | $8.28 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Pack | $7.02 | $2.07 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |