What is expected value (EV)?

Expected value (EV) is the average dollar amount you would get from opening a sealed product, calculated by multiplying each card's market price by its pull probability and summing across tiers and packs.

How are pull rates calculated?

Pull rates are sourced from community data aggregated across thousands of openings from multiple public sources. Confidence labels reflect sample size quality.

How often are prices updated?

Prices are refreshed daily from TCGPlayer via TCGCSV and EV is recalculated after each refresh.

How Rip or Flip Works

We calculate expected value for sealed TCG products so you can decide whether to rip, hold, or buy singles with clearer math.

EV Methodology

EV combines card prices and pull rates: for each rarity tier, we compute average card value × pull rate, sum those tiers into EV per pack, then scale by packs per product and add promo value.

We report two EV views: Market EV (raw singles value) and Cash-Out EV (Market EV × 0.64) to reflect realistic selling friction like marketplace fees, shipping, and liquidity discount.

Verdict thresholds are simple: above 110% = Rip It, 90-110% = Hold, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

Worked Example

Example product: sealed price $49.99, EV per pack $6.20, 9 packs, promos $2.00.

Market EV = ($6.20 × 9) + $2.00 = $57.80
Market Return = $57.80 / $49.99 = 115.6%
Cash-Out EV = $57.80 × 0.64 = $36.99
Cash-Out Return = $36.99 / $49.99 = 74.0%

Why Trust These Numbers?

●Updated daily with fresh TCGPlayer market pricing via TCGCSV.
●Transparent assumptions including confidence labels and cash-out multiplier.
●Open API available at /api-docs for verification and reuse.

Author Note

Rip or Flip is built by active TCG hobbyists and product builders who wanted a faster, auditable way to compare sealed openings across games. The project is used by collectors, streamers, and Discord communities to sanity-check opening decisions.

For users who also need buy-side tooling, we maintain a Collectify Discord guide covering the restock-alert community we recommend for finding sealed Pokemon inventory at retail.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is expected value (EV)?: Expected value (EV) is the average dollar amount you would get from opening a sealed product, calculated by multiplying each card's market price by its pull probability and summing across tiers and packs.
How are pull rates calculated?: Pull rates are sourced from community data aggregated across thousands of openings from multiple public sources. Confidence labels reflect sample size quality.
How often are prices updated?: Prices are refreshed daily from TCGPlayer via TCGCSV and EV is recalculated after each refresh.