Shrouded Fable ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $51.32.
9 packs plus $1.35 in promo value produce $31.05 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−62%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $82.37.
Expected Loss
−$51.32
The average opening result after paying $82.37 sealed.
Open Average
$31.05
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$19.87
Expected range $2.05-$4.55 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.30
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 3,000 pack openings.
$3.30 × 9 packs = $29.70
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$29.70 + $1.35 promos = $31.05
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$31.05 × 0.64 = $19.87
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $31.05 ÷ $82.37 = 37.7% • Cash-out: $19.87 ÷ $82.37 = 24.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.30 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 15 | $23.81 | 8.50% | $2.02 | $18.18 | 61.2% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $28.81 | 1.50% | $0.43 | $3.87 | 13.0% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 10 | $4.99 | 6.50% | $0.32 | $2.88 | 9.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $1.80 | 16.70% | $0.30 | $2.70 | 9.1% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 5 | $28.43 | 0.70% | $0.20 | $1.80 | 6.1% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 3 | $0.58 | 5.00% | $0.03 | $0.27 | 0.9% |
| Total | $3.30 | $29.70 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shrouded Fable, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Duskull - 068/064
#068/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$51.63
+$2.61 EV
Persian - 078/064
#078/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$42.77
+$2.16 EV
Munkidori
#072/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$36.84
+$1.89 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 092/064
#092/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$47.31
+$1.26 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 038/064
#038/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.74
+$1.17 EV
Cassiopeia - 094/064
#094/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$36.74
+$0.99 EV
Pecharunt ex - 039/064
#039/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$3.49
+$0.90 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 084/064
#084/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$12.96
+$0.72 EV
Pecharunt ex - 093/064
#093/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$23.13
+$0.63 EV
Basic Darkness Energy
#098/064 · HR
1 in 714 packs
$44.73
+$0.54 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 3,000 pack openings (https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/24/shrouded-fable-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-shrouded-fable-booster-bundle). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($82.37) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($82.37) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.35) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrouded Fable ETB | $82.37 | $31.05 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | $132.57 | $55.14 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle | $48.07 | $19.80 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | $37.73 | $18.50 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingdra ex Special Illustration Collection | $117.42 | $22.80 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Greninja ex Special Illustration Collection | $124.07 | $22.80 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister | $33.04 | $10.40 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | $16.93 | $6.60 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Pack | $8.37 | $3.30 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |