Shrouded Fable Greninja ex Special Illustration Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $119.85.
6 packs plus $3.00 in promo value produce $26.10 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−82%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $145.95.
Expected Loss
−$119.85
The average opening result after paying $145.95 sealed.
Open Average
$26.10
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.70
Expected range $2.40-$5.30 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.85
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 3,000 pack openings.
$3.85 × 6 packs = $23.10
This product contains 6 booster packs.
$23.10 + $3.00 promos = $26.10
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$26.10 × 0.64 = $16.70
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $26.10 ÷ $145.95 = 17.9% • Cash-out: $16.70 ÷ $145.95 = 11.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.85 EV per pack for this 6-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/6pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 15 | $28.99 | 8.50% | $2.46 | $14.76 | 63.9% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $28.80 | 1.50% | $0.43 | $2.58 | 11.2% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 10 | $6.00 | 6.50% | $0.39 | $2.34 | 10.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $1.92 | 16.70% | $0.32 | $1.92 | 8.3% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 5 | $30.76 | 0.70% | $0.22 | $1.32 | 5.7% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 3 | $0.65 | 5.00% | $0.03 | $0.18 | 0.8% |
| Total | $3.85 | $23.10 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shrouded Fable, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Persian - 078/064
#078/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$54.68
+$1.86 EV
Duskull - 068/064
#068/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$53.39
+$1.80 EV
Dusclops - 069/064
#069/064 · IR
1 in 176 packs
$48.04
+$1.62 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 092/064
#092/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$46.88
+$0.84 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 038/064
#038/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.52
+$0.78 EV
Pecharunt ex - 039/064
#039/064 · RR
1 in 36 packs
$4.29
+$0.72 EV
Cassiopeia - 094/064
#094/064 · SIR
1 in 333 packs
$38.97
+$0.72 EV
Fezandipiti ex - 084/064
#084/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$14.22
+$0.54 EV
Basic Darkness Energy
#098/064 · HR
1 in 714 packs
$63.68
+$0.54 EV
Xerosic's Machinations - 089/064
#089/064 · UR
1 in 154 packs
$12.07
+$0.48 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 3,000 pack openings (https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/24/shrouded-fable-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-shrouded-fable-booster-bundle). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($145.95) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($145.95) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($3.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrouded Fable ETB | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle | $48.48 | $23.10 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingdra ex Special Illustration Collection | $127.81 | $26.10 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Greninja ex Special Illustration Collection | $145.95 | $26.10 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister | $32.25 | $12.05 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | $19.97 | $7.70 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Pack | $8.94 | $3.85 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes First Partners Deluxe Pin Collection | Ascended Heroes | $52.63 | $24.29 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |