Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $29.53.
4 packs plus $12.65 in promo value produce $27.65 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−52%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $57.18.
Expected Loss
−$29.53
The average opening result after paying $57.18 sealed.
Open Average
$27.65
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$17.70
Expected range $0.00-$7.90 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.75
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$3.75 × 4 packs = $15.00
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$15.00 + $12.65 promos = $27.65
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$27.65 × 0.64 = $17.70
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $27.65 ÷ $57.18 = 48.4% • Cash-out: $17.70 ÷ $57.18 = 30.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.75 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $186.35 | 1.25% | $2.33 | $9.32 | 62.1% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 13 | $5.17 | 11.10% | $0.57 | $2.28 | 15.2% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 17 | $4.08 | 8.30% | $0.34 | $1.36 | 9.1% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $351.90 | 0.08% | $0.28 | $1.12 | 7.5% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.15 | 20.00% | $0.23 | $0.92 | 6.1% |
| Total | $3.75 | $15.00 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Phantasmal Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Charizard X ex - 125/094
#125/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$835.15
+$8.36 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 130/094
#130/094 · MHR
1 in 1259 packs
$351.90
+$1.12 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094
#109/094 · UR
1 in 205 packs
$35.08
+$0.68 EV
Meowth
#106/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$17.69
+$0.60 EV
Piplup - 098/094
#098/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$15.85
+$0.56 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 013/094
#013/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$4.12
+$0.32 EV
Dawn - 129/094
#129/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$29.53
+$0.28 EV
Mega Gengar ex
#056/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$2.78
+$0.24 EV
Mega Sharpedo ex - 127/094
#127/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$25.82
+$0.24 EV
Wigglytuff - 105/094
#105/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$5.42
+$0.20 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Phantasmal-Flames-Pull-Rates/9abae60d-b7fb-448f-874e-176f78d6a6ca/, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-phantasmal-flames-mega-charizard-ex-sir-pull-rate/, https://tcgprotectors.com/blogs/pokemon-blog/phantasmal-flames-pull-rates-10000-packs-analyzed-hits-or-misses). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($57.18) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($57.18) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($12.65) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | $384.35 | $135.00 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames ETB | $117.36 | $36.33 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames PC ETB | $316.79 | $87.94 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle | $66.32 | $22.50 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames 3 Pack Blister | $31.20 | $11.75 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister | $9.88 | $4.00 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster | $10.97 | $3.75 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Art Bundle | $43.67 | $15.00 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | $9.19 | $3.75 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes First Partners Deluxe Pin Collection | Ascended Heroes | $52.63 | $24.29 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |