Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $19.43.
4 packs plus $15.39 in promo value produce $29.31 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−40%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $48.74.
Expected Loss
−$19.43
The average opening result after paying $48.74 sealed.
Open Average
$29.31
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$18.76
Expected range $0.00-$7.15 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.48
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$3.48 × 4 packs = $13.92
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$13.92 + $15.39 promos = $29.31
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$29.31 × 0.64 = $18.76
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $29.31 ÷ $48.74 = 60.1% • Cash-out: $18.76 ÷ $48.74 = 38.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.48 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $168.09 | 1.25% | $2.10 | $8.40 | 60.3% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 13 | $4.60 | 11.10% | $0.51 | $2.04 | 14.7% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 17 | $4.17 | 8.30% | $0.35 | $1.40 | 10.1% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $373.07 | 0.08% | $0.30 | $1.20 | 8.6% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.10 | 20.00% | $0.22 | $0.88 | 6.3% |
| Total | $3.48 | $13.92 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Phantasmal Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Charizard X ex - 125/094
#125/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$738.50
+$7.40 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 130/094
#130/094 · MHR
1 in 1259 packs
$373.07
+$1.20 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094
#109/094 · UR
1 in 205 packs
$35.67
+$0.68 EV
Meowth
#106/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$17.34
+$0.60 EV
Piplup - 098/094
#098/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$11.92
+$0.40 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 013/094
#013/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$4.18
+$0.32 EV
Dawn - 129/094
#129/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$32.18
+$0.32 EV
Mega Sharpedo ex - 127/094
#127/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$28.65
+$0.28 EV
Mega Gengar ex
#056/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$2.42
+$0.20 EV
Wigglytuff - 105/094
#105/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$5.09
+$0.16 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Phantasmal-Flames-Pull-Rates/9abae60d-b7fb-448f-874e-176f78d6a6ca/, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-phantasmal-flames-mega-charizard-ex-sir-pull-rate/, https://tcgprotectors.com/blogs/pokemon-blog/phantasmal-flames-pull-rates-10000-packs-analyzed-hits-or-misses). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($48.74) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($48.74) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($15.39) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | $340.63 | $125.28 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames ETB | $95.36 | $33.43 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames PC ETB | $237.71 | $77.24 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle | $54.05 | $20.88 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames 3 Pack Blister | $26.78 | $10.94 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister | $8.75 | $3.73 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | $48.74 | $29.31 | −40% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster | $8.90 | $3.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Art Bundle | $34.57 | $13.92 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | $8.32 | $3.48 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |