Phantasmal Flames ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $62.41.
9 packs plus $2.08 in promo value produce $33.85 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−65%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $96.26.
Expected Loss
−$62.41
The average opening result after paying $96.26 sealed.
Open Average
$33.85
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$21.66
Expected range $0.00-$7.23 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.53
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$3.53 × 9 packs = $31.77
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$31.77 + $2.08 promos = $33.85
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$33.85 × 0.64 = $21.66
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $33.85 ÷ $96.26 = 35.2% • Cash-out: $21.66 ÷ $96.26 = 22.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.53 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $168.95 | 1.25% | $2.11 | $18.99 | 59.8% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 13 | $4.74 | 11.10% | $0.53 | $4.77 | 15.0% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 17 | $4.30 | 8.30% | $0.36 | $3.24 | 10.2% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $373.90 | 0.08% | $0.30 | $2.70 | 8.5% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.13 | 20.00% | $0.23 | $2.07 | 6.5% |
| Total | $3.53 | $31.77 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Phantasmal Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Charizard X ex - 125/094
#125/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$743.08
+$16.74 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 130/094
#130/094 · MHR
1 in 1259 packs
$373.90
+$2.70 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094
#109/094 · UR
1 in 205 packs
$38.33
+$1.71 EV
Meowth
#106/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$17.96
+$1.35 EV
Piplup - 098/094
#098/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$12.20
+$0.90 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 013/094
#013/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$4.26
+$0.81 EV
Dawn - 129/094
#129/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$32.98
+$0.72 EV
Mega Sharpedo ex - 127/094
#127/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$28.15
+$0.63 EV
Mega Gengar ex
#056/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$2.62
+$0.45 EV
Wigglytuff - 105/094
#105/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$5.56
+$0.45 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Phantasmal-Flames-Pull-Rates/9abae60d-b7fb-448f-874e-176f78d6a6ca/, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-phantasmal-flames-mega-charizard-ex-sir-pull-rate/, https://tcgprotectors.com/blogs/pokemon-blog/phantasmal-flames-pull-rates-10000-packs-analyzed-hits-or-misses). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($96.26) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($96.26) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.08) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | $340.57 | $127.08 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames ETB | $96.26 | $33.85 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames PC ETB | $236.73 | $77.68 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle | $55.44 | $21.18 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames 3 Pack Blister | $26.74 | $11.09 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister | $8.62 | $3.78 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | $48.42 | $28.89 | −40% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster | $8.94 | $3.53 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Art Bundle | $34.66 | $14.12 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | $8.15 | $3.53 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |