Phantasmal Flames ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $81.03.
9 packs plus $2.58 in promo value produce $36.33 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−69%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $117.36.
Expected Loss
−$81.03
The average opening result after paying $117.36 sealed.
Open Average
$36.33
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$23.25
Expected range $0.00-$7.90 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.75
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$3.75 × 9 packs = $33.75
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$33.75 + $2.58 promos = $36.33
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$36.33 × 0.64 = $23.25
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $36.33 ÷ $117.36 = 31.0% • Cash-out: $23.25 ÷ $117.36 = 19.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.75 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $186.35 | 1.25% | $2.33 | $20.97 | 62.1% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 13 | $5.17 | 11.10% | $0.57 | $5.13 | 15.2% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 17 | $4.08 | 8.30% | $0.34 | $3.06 | 9.1% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $351.90 | 0.08% | $0.28 | $2.52 | 7.5% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.15 | 20.00% | $0.23 | $2.07 | 6.1% |
| Total | $3.75 | $33.75 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Phantasmal Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Charizard X ex - 125/094
#125/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$835.15
+$18.81 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 130/094
#130/094 · MHR
1 in 1259 packs
$351.90
+$2.52 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094
#109/094 · UR
1 in 205 packs
$35.08
+$1.53 EV
Meowth
#106/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$17.69
+$1.35 EV
Piplup - 098/094
#098/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$15.85
+$1.26 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 013/094
#013/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$4.12
+$0.72 EV
Dawn - 129/094
#129/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$29.53
+$0.63 EV
Mega Gengar ex
#056/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$2.78
+$0.54 EV
Mega Sharpedo ex - 127/094
#127/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$25.82
+$0.54 EV
Wigglytuff - 105/094
#105/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$5.42
+$0.45 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Phantasmal-Flames-Pull-Rates/9abae60d-b7fb-448f-874e-176f78d6a6ca/, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-phantasmal-flames-mega-charizard-ex-sir-pull-rate/, https://tcgprotectors.com/blogs/pokemon-blog/phantasmal-flames-pull-rates-10000-packs-analyzed-hits-or-misses). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($117.36) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($117.36) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.58) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | $384.35 | $135.00 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames ETB | $117.36 | $36.33 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames PC ETB | $316.79 | $87.94 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle | $66.32 | $22.50 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames 3 Pack Blister | $31.20 | $11.75 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister | $9.88 | $4.00 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster | $10.97 | $3.75 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Art Bundle | $43.67 | $15.00 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | $9.19 | $3.75 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |