Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $4.84.
1 packs plus $0.25 in promo value produce $3.78 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−56%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $8.62.
Expected Loss
−$4.84
The average opening result after paying $8.62 sealed.
Open Average
$3.78
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$2.42
Expected range $0.00-$7.23 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.53
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$3.53 × 1 packs = $3.53
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$3.53 + $0.25 promos = $3.78
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$3.78 × 0.64 = $2.42
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $3.78 ÷ $8.62 = 43.9% • Cash-out: $2.42 ÷ $8.62 = 28.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.53 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 5 | $168.95 | 1.25% | $2.11 | $2.11 | 59.8% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 13 | $4.74 | 11.10% | $0.53 | $0.53 | 15.0% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 17 | $4.30 | 8.30% | $0.36 | $0.36 | 10.2% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 1 | $373.90 | 0.08% | $0.30 | $0.30 | 8.5% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.13 | 20.00% | $0.23 | $0.23 | 6.5% |
| Total | $3.53 | $3.53 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Phantasmal Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Charizard X ex - 125/094
#125/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$743.08
+$1.86 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 130/094
#130/094 · MHR
1 in 1259 packs
$373.90
+$0.30 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094
#109/094 · UR
1 in 205 packs
$38.33
+$0.19 EV
Meowth
#106/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$17.96
+$0.15 EV
Piplup - 098/094
#098/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$12.20
+$0.10 EV
Mega Charizard X ex - 013/094
#013/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$4.26
+$0.09 EV
Dawn - 129/094
#129/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$32.98
+$0.08 EV
Mega Sharpedo ex - 127/094
#127/094 · SIR
1 in 400 packs
$28.15
+$0.07 EV
Mega Gengar ex
#056/094 · RR
1 in 50 packs
$2.62
+$0.05 EV
Wigglytuff - 105/094
#105/094 · IR
1 in 117 packs
$5.56
+$0.05 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Phantasmal-Flames-Pull-Rates/9abae60d-b7fb-448f-874e-176f78d6a6ca/, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-phantasmal-flames-mega-charizard-ex-sir-pull-rate/, https://tcgprotectors.com/blogs/pokemon-blog/phantasmal-flames-pull-rates-10000-packs-analyzed-hits-or-misses). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $5.49. Current sealed price ($8.62) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($8.62) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($0.25) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | $340.57 | $127.08 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames ETB | $96.26 | $33.85 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames PC ETB | $236.73 | $77.68 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Bundle | $55.44 | $21.18 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames 3 Pack Blister | $26.74 | $11.09 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Single Pack Blister | $8.62 | $3.78 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | $48.42 | $28.89 | −40% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Sleeved Booster | $8.94 | $3.53 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Art Bundle | $34.66 | $14.12 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack | $8.15 | $3.53 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |