Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $18.28.
4 packs plus $9.97 in promo value produce $20.49 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−47%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $38.77.
Expected Loss
−$18.28
The average opening result after paying $38.77 sealed.
Open Average
$20.49
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$13.11
Expected range $0.00-$8.89 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.63
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 615 pack openings.
$2.63 × 4 packs = $10.52
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$10.52 + $9.97 promos = $20.49
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$20.49 × 0.64 = $13.11
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $20.49 ÷ $38.77 = 52.9% • Cash-out: $13.11 ÷ $38.77 = 33.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.63 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 58 | $9.61 | 23.90% | $2.30 | $9.20 | 87.5% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 27 | $6.81 | 2.44% | $0.17 | $0.68 | 6.5% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 20 | $0.35 | 25.53% | $0.09 | $0.36 | 3.4% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $1.34 | 4.88% | $0.07 | $0.28 | 2.7% |
| Total | $2.63 | $10.52 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Astral Radiance, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Machamp V (Alternate Full Art)
#172/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$176.09
+$2.92 EV
Origin Forme Palkia V (Alternate Full Art)
#167/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$75.04
+$1.24 EV
Origin Forme Dialga V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$57.20
+$0.96 EV
Radiant Greninja
#046/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$2.77
+$0.20 EV
Rampardos
#077/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.63
+$0.04 EV
Absol
#097/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.52
+$0.04 EV
Diancie
#068/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.42
+$0.04 EV
Radiant Hawlucha
#081/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.68
+$0.04 EV
Radiant Heatran
#027/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.57
+$0.04 EV
Origin Forme Dialga VSTAR - 198/189 (Secret)
#198/189 · SR
1 in 1107 packs
$14.54
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 615 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/astral-radiance-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/05/15/astral-radiance-pull-rates-are-surprisingly-good-in-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($38.77) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($38.77) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($9.97) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astral Radiance Booster Box | $384.59 | $94.68 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance ETB | $109.95 | $22.04 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance PC ETB | $189.83 | $28.30 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance 3 Pack Blister | $33.69 | $8.39 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Sleeved Booster | $10.75 | $2.63 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Booster Pack | $9.19 | $2.63 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes First Partners Deluxe Pin Collection | Ascended Heroes | $52.63 | $24.29 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |