Rip or Flip
Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box

Price Snapshot

Current Market

$38.77

MSRP

$21.99

Spread: +$16.78 (76%) above MSRP

Buy on TCGPlayer →
KEEP SEALEDAstral Radiance4 packs+ $9.97 promos

Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box

Average opening value trails the buy-in by $18.28.

4 packs plus $9.97 in promo value produce $20.49 of average market value.

Return vs Market

−47%

Compared with today's sealed market price of $38.77.

Expected Loss

−$18.28

The average opening result after paying $38.77 sealed.

Open Average

$20.49

Average market value from packs and included promos.

Cash-out EV

$13.11

Expected range $0.00-$8.89 per pack.

Prices just now · EV just now · Medium confidence

Price History

Recent sealed price movement for this product.

Sealed History

Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.

How the EV is Calculated

Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.

01

EV per booster pack = $2.63

Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 615 pack openings.

02

$2.63 × 4 packs = $10.52

This product contains 4 booster packs.

03

$10.52 + $9.97 promos = $20.49

Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.

04

$20.49 × 0.64 = $13.11

Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.

05

Market: $20.49 ÷ $38.77 = 52.9%Cash-out: $13.11 ÷ $38.77 = 33.8%

Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

EV by Rarity Tier

Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.63 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.

RarityCardsAvg ValuePull RateEV/PackEV/4pk% of Total
Ultra Rare(UR)58$9.6123.90%$2.30$9.2087.5%
Secret Rare(SR)27$6.812.44%$0.17$0.686.5%
Holo Rare(H)20$0.3525.53%$0.09$0.363.4%
Radiant Rare(RR)3$1.344.88%$0.07$0.282.7%
Total$2.63$10.52100%

Promo Cards

Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.

$9.97 total promo EV

Top 10 Cards You Could Pull

The most valuable cards in Astral Radiance, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.

Assumptions

Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.

Expand assumptions
  • Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced from 615 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/astral-radiance-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/05/15/astral-radiance-pull-rates-are-surprisingly-good-in-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
  • MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($38.77) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
  • Sealed price ($38.77) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
  • Promo value ($9.97) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
  • Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
  • EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.

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Other Products in This Set

ProductPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Astral Radiance Booster Box$384.59$94.68−75%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance ETB$109.95$22.04−80%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance PC ETB$189.83$28.30−85%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance 3 Pack Blister$33.69$8.39−75%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box$38.77$20.49−47%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance Sleeved Booster$10.75$2.63−76%KEEP SEALED
Astral Radiance Booster Pack$9.19$2.63−71%KEEP SEALED

Compare Collections Across Sets

See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.

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