Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $18.97.
4 packs plus $7.64 in promo value produce $17.36 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−52%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $36.33.
Expected Loss
−$18.97
The average opening result after paying $36.33 sealed.
Open Average
$17.36
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$11.11
Expected range $0.00-$8.18 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.43
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 615 pack openings.
$2.43 × 4 packs = $9.72
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$9.72 + $7.64 promos = $17.36
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$17.36 × 0.64 = $11.11
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $17.36 ÷ $36.33 = 47.8% • Cash-out: $11.11 ÷ $36.33 = 30.6%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.43 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 58 | $8.91 | 23.90% | $2.13 | $8.52 | 87.7% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 27 | $6.42 | 2.44% | $0.16 | $0.64 | 6.6% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 20 | $0.32 | 25.53% | $0.08 | $0.32 | 3.3% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $1.30 | 4.88% | $0.06 | $0.24 | 2.5% |
| Total | $2.43 | $9.72 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Astral Radiance, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Machamp V (Alternate Full Art)
#172/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$161.07
+$2.64 EV
Origin Forme Palkia V (Alternate Full Art)
#167/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$71.97
+$1.20 EV
Origin Forme Dialga V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$52.80
+$0.88 EV
Radiant Greninja
#046/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$2.98
+$0.20 EV
Rampardos
#077/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.66
+$0.04 EV
Irida
#147/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.44
+$0.04 EV
Absol
#097/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.40
+$0.04 EV
Radiant Hawlucha
#081/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.50
+$0.04 EV
Radiant Heatran
#027/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.43
+$0.04 EV
Machamp VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 1107 packs
$12.53
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 615 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/astral-radiance-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/05/15/astral-radiance-pull-rates-are-surprisingly-good-in-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($36.33) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($36.33) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($7.64) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astral Radiance Booster Box | $388.63 | $87.48 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance ETB | $104.39 | $20.44 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance PC ETB | $156.66 | $26.30 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance 3 Pack Blister | $33.01 | $7.79 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | $36.33 | $17.36 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Sleeved Booster | $9.59 | $2.43 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Booster Pack | $8.92 | $2.43 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |