Astral Radiance ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $84.10.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $20.36 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−81%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $104.46.
Expected Loss
−$84.10
The average opening result after paying $104.46 sealed.
Open Average
$20.36
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$13.03
Expected range $0.00-$8.16 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.42
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 615 pack openings.
$2.42 × 8 packs = $19.36
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$19.36 + $1.00 promos = $20.36
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$20.36 × 0.64 = $13.03
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $20.36 ÷ $104.46 = 19.5% • Cash-out: $13.03 ÷ $104.46 = 12.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.42 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 58 | $8.88 | 23.90% | $2.12 | $16.96 | 87.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 27 | $6.42 | 2.44% | $0.16 | $1.28 | 6.6% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 20 | $0.32 | 25.53% | $0.08 | $0.64 | 3.3% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $1.24 | 4.88% | $0.06 | $0.48 | 2.5% |
| Total | $2.42 | $19.36 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Astral Radiance, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Machamp V (Alternate Full Art)
#172/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$161.07
+$5.28 EV
Origin Forme Palkia V (Alternate Full Art)
#167/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$71.97
+$2.40 EV
Origin Forme Dialga V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/189 · UR
1 in 243 packs
$52.20
+$1.76 EV
Radiant Greninja
#046/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$2.70
+$0.32 EV
Rampardos
#077/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.65
+$0.08 EV
Irida
#147/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.44
+$0.08 EV
Absol
#097/189 · H
1 in 78 packs
$0.40
+$0.08 EV
Radiant Hawlucha
#081/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.53
+$0.08 EV
Radiant Heatran
#027/189 · RR
1 in 61 packs
$0.49
+$0.08 EV
Machamp VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 1107 packs
$12.49
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 615 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/astral-radiance-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/05/15/astral-radiance-pull-rates-are-surprisingly-good-in-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($104.46) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($104.46) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astral Radiance Booster Box | $388.63 | $87.12 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance ETB | $104.46 | $20.36 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance PC ETB | $156.66 | $26.20 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance 3 Pack Blister | $32.81 | $7.76 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | $36.33 | $17.28 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Sleeved Booster | $9.59 | $2.42 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Booster Pack | $8.92 | $2.42 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |