Celebrations Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $99.62.
4 packs plus $2.00 in promo value produce $5.56 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−95%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $105.18.
Expected Loss
−$99.62
The average opening result after paying $105.18 sealed.
Open Average
$5.56
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$3.56
Expected range $0.33-$1.45 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.89
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 541 pack openings.
$0.89 × 4 packs = $3.56
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$3.56 + $2.00 promos = $5.56
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$5.56 × 0.64 = $3.56
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $5.56 ÷ $105.18 = 5.3% • Cash-out: $3.56 ÷ $105.18 = 3.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.89 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 7 | $3.00 | 12.80% | $0.38 | $1.52 | 42.7% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 17 | $0.79 | 35.00% | $0.28 | $1.12 | 31.5% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $57.52 | 0.40% | $0.23 | $0.92 | 25.8% |
| Total | $0.89 | $3.56 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Celebrations, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew (Secret)
#025/025 · SR
1 in 250 packs
$57.52
+$0.92 EV
Pikachu
#005/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$5.59
+$0.48 EV
Flying Pikachu VMAX
#007/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$5.97
+$0.44 EV
Surfing Pikachu VMAX
#009/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$5.83
+$0.44 EV
Mew
#011/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$3.42
+$0.28 EV
Surfing Pikachu V
#008/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$3.96
+$0.28 EV
Lugia
#022/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$0.63
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 541 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/celebrations-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/forums/threads/all-%E2%80%98celebrations%E2%80%99-cards-promos-products-revealed.152588/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $24.99. Current sealed price ($105.18) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($105.18) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrations ETB | $321.08 | $34.91 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations PC ETB | $464.06 | $36.69 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Collection | $105.18 | $5.56 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Mini Tin | $42.33 | $1.78 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection | $954.51 | $35.13 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Premium Figure Collection | $201.58 | $12.12 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Booster Pack | $24.46 | $0.89 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |