Rip or Flip
Paldean Fates Mini Tin

Price Snapshot

Current Market

$35.88

MSRP

$9.99

Spread: +$25.89 (259%) above MSRP

Buy on TCGPlayer →
KEEP SEALEDPaldean Fates2 packs

Paldean Fates Mini Tin

Average opening value trails the buy-in by $27.26.

2 packs produce $8.62 of average market value at current prices.

Return vs Market

−76%

Compared with today's sealed market price of $35.88.

Expected Loss

−$27.26

The average opening result after paying $35.88 sealed.

Open Average

$8.62

Average market value from packs and included promos.

Cash-out EV

$5.52

Expected range $0.45-$8.17 per pack.

Prices just now · EV just now · High confidence

Price History

Recent sealed price movement for this product.

Sealed History

Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.

How the EV is Calculated

Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.

01

EV per booster pack = $4.31

Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 7 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.

02

$4.31 × 2 packs = $8.62

This product contains 2 booster packs.

03

$8.62 = $8.62

No promo value applied for this product.

04

$8.62 × 0.64 = $5.52

Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.

05

Market: $8.62 ÷ $35.88 = 24.0%Cash-out: $5.52 ÷ $35.88 = 15.4%

Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

EV by Rarity Tier

Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.31 EV per pack for this 2-pack product.

RarityCardsAvg ValuePull RateEV/PackEV/2pk% of Total
Special Illustration Rare(SIR)8$133.231.72%$2.29$4.5853.1%
Shiny Rare(SHR)120$5.0325.00%$1.26$2.5229.2%
Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR)12$4.507.70%$0.35$0.708.1%
Hyper Rare(HR)6$8.351.61%$0.13$0.263.0%
Double Rare(RR)10$0.9213.30%$0.12$0.242.8%
Illustration Rare(IR)3$1.517.10%$0.11$0.222.6%
Ultra Rare(UR)5$0.806.70%$0.05$0.101.2%
Total$4.31$8.62100%

Top 10 Cards You Could Pull

The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.

Assumptions

Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.

Expand assumptions
  • Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed). Your results will vary.
  • MSRP is $9.99. Current sealed price ($35.88) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
  • Sealed price ($35.88) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
  • Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
  • EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.

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Other Products in This Set

ProductPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Paldean Fates ETB$334.25$48.94−85%KEEP SEALED
Paldean Fates PC ETB$430.23$110.88−74%KEEP SEALED
Paldean Fates Booster Bundle$132.15$25.86−80%KEEP SEALED
Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection$42.71$13.68−68%KEEP SEALED
Paldean Fates Mini Tin$35.88$8.62−76%KEEP SEALED
Paldean Fates Tin$91.08$22.55−75%KEEP SEALED
Paldean Fates Premium Collection$172.08$33.17−81%KEEP SEALED
Paldean Fates Booster Pack$16.26$4.31−73%KEEP SEALED
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