Paldean Fates Tin
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $68.53.
5 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $22.55 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−75%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $91.08.
Expected Loss
−$68.53
The average opening result after paying $91.08 sealed.
Open Average
$22.55
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$14.43
Expected range $0.45-$8.17 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.31
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 7 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$4.31 × 5 packs = $21.55
This product contains 5 booster packs.
$21.55 + $1.00 promos = $22.55
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$22.55 × 0.64 = $14.43
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $22.55 ÷ $91.08 = 24.8% • Cash-out: $14.43 ÷ $91.08 = 15.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.31 EV per pack for this 5-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/5pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 8 | $133.23 | 1.72% | $2.29 | $11.45 | 53.1% |
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 120 | $5.03 | 25.00% | $1.26 | $6.30 | 29.2% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 12 | $4.50 | 7.70% | $0.35 | $1.75 | 8.1% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $8.35 | 1.61% | $0.13 | $0.65 | 3.0% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.92 | 13.30% | $0.12 | $0.60 | 2.8% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 3 | $1.51 | 7.10% | $0.11 | $0.55 | 2.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 5 | $0.80 | 6.70% | $0.05 | $0.25 | 1.2% |
| Total | $4.31 | $21.55 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew ex - 232/091
#232/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$639.92
+$6.90 EV
Charizard ex - 234/091
#234/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$229.89
+$2.45 EV
Gardevoir ex - 233/091
#233/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$117.54
+$1.25 EV
Mew ex - 216/091
#216/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$29.70
+$0.95 EV
Pikachu - 131/091
#131/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$46.18
+$0.50 EV
Snorlax
#202/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$26.40
+$0.30 EV
Charizard ex - 054/091
#054/091 · RR
1 in 75 packs
$4.40
+$0.30 EV
Charmander - 109/091
#109/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$24.01
+$0.25 EV
Gardevoir ex - 217/091
#217/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$6.88
+$0.20 EV
Pawmi - 226/091
#226/091 · IR
1 in 42 packs
$1.58
+$0.20 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $26.99. Current sealed price ($91.08) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($91.08) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates ETB | $334.25 | $48.94 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates PC ETB | $430.23 | $110.88 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Bundle | $132.15 | $25.86 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection | $42.71 | $13.68 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Mini Tin | $35.88 | $8.62 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | $91.08 | $22.55 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Premium Collection | $172.08 | $33.17 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Pack | $16.26 | $4.31 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |