Paldean Fates Premium Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $139.27.
7 packs plus $3.00 in promo value produce $42.48 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−77%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $181.75.
Expected Loss
−$139.27
The average opening result after paying $181.75 sealed.
Open Average
$42.48
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$27.19
Expected range $0.17-$11.11 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.64
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 7 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$5.64 × 7 packs = $39.48
This product contains 7 booster packs.
$39.48 + $3.00 promos = $42.48
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$42.48 × 0.64 = $27.19
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $42.48 ÷ $181.75 = 23.4% • Cash-out: $27.19 ÷ $181.75 = 15.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.64 EV per pack for this 7-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/7pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 8 | $171.14 | 1.72% | $2.94 | $20.58 | 52.1% |
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 120 | $7.27 | 25.00% | $1.82 | $12.74 | 32.3% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 12 | $5.04 | 7.70% | $0.39 | $2.73 | 6.9% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $9.15 | 1.61% | $0.15 | $1.05 | 2.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.04 | 13.30% | $0.14 | $0.98 | 2.5% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 3 | $2.04 | 7.10% | $0.14 | $0.98 | 2.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 5 | $0.93 | 6.70% | $0.06 | $0.42 | 1.1% |
| Total | $5.64 | $39.48 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew ex - 232/091
#232/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$831.14
+$12.53 EV
Charizard ex - 234/091
#234/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$290.03
+$4.34 EV
Gardevoir ex - 233/091
#233/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$162.04
+$2.45 EV
Mew ex - 216/091
#216/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$32.23
+$1.47 EV
Pikachu - 131/091
#131/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$74.13
+$1.05 EV
Snorlax
#202/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$67.54
+$0.98 EV
Mimikyu -160/091
#160/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$60.41
+$0.91 EV
Charizard ex - 054/091
#054/091 · RR
1 in 75 packs
$4.85
+$0.42 EV
Pawmi - 226/091
#226/091 · IR
1 in 42 packs
$2.54
+$0.42 EV
Gardevoir ex - 217/091
#217/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$8.12
+$0.35 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($181.75) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($181.75) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($3.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates ETB | $413.50 | $62.90 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates PC ETB | $618.58 | $151.38 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Bundle | $148.01 | $33.84 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection | $47.91 | $17.67 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Mini Tin | $38.79 | $11.28 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | $99.18 | $29.20 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Premium Collection | $181.75 | $42.48 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Pack | $19.59 | $5.64 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |