Paldean Fates
Don't rip Paldean Fates right now.
−68%
$42.71 sealed → $13.68 EV | EV/pack: $4.31
Even the best product loses −$29.03 on average.
If you must open something: Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection loses the least at −$29.03.
Best product to check
Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection
MSRP $15.99 • Market price $42.71 • Return −68%
Set EV History
Recent movement in set-level EV based on current pricing and pull-rate assumptions.
EV Trend
EV per pack and best product return over time.
Best Sealed Products
Browse the current set products sorted by return, price, and market EV.
All 8 Products
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4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Chase Cards
What you could pull from this set, ranked by value.
Mew ex - 232/091
#232/091
SIR$639.92
EV: $1.38
Charizard ex - 234/091
#234/091
SIR$229.89
EV: $0.49
Gardevoir ex - 233/091
#233/091
SIR$117.54
EV: $0.25
View 7 more chase cards
Mew ex - 216/091
#216/091
SUR$29.70
EV: $0.19
Pikachu - 131/091
#131/091
SHR$46.18
EV: $0.10
Iono - 237/091
#237/091
SIR$27.51
EV: $0.06
Charizard ex - 054/091
#054/091
RR$4.40
EV: $0.06
Snorlax
#202/091
SHR$26.40
EV: $0.06
Charmander - 109/091
#109/091
SHR$24.01
EV: $0.05
Gardevoir ex - 217/091
#217/091
SUR$6.88
EV: $0.04
Deep Dives
Expandable sections for the EV math, pull-rate tables, and editorial FAQ.
The Math — EV Breakdown & Pull Rates
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Range | Pull Rate | EV/Pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 8 | $133.23 | $5.73–$639.92 | 1.72% | $2.29 |
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 120 | $5.03 | $1.48–$46.18 | 25.00% | $1.26 |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 12 | $4.50 | $0.88–$29.70 | 7.70% | $0.35 |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $8.35 | $5.26–$11.21 | 1.61% | $0.13 |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.92 | $0.45–$4.40 | 13.30% | $0.12 |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 3 | $1.51 | $1.39–$1.58 | 7.10% | $0.11 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 5 | $0.80 | $0.62–$1.17 | 6.70% | $0.05 |
| Total EV / Pack | $4.31 | ||||
| Rarity | Pull Rate | Odds | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 25.00% | 1 in 4 | 1,500 |
| Double Rare(RR) | 13.30% | 1 in 8 | 1,500 |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 7.70% | 1 in 13 | 1,500 |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 7.10% | 1 in 14 | 1,500 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 6.70% | 1 in 15 | 1,500 |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 1.72% | 1 in 58 | 1,500 |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 1.61% | 1 in 62 | 1,500 |
Sources: https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Paldean Fates worth opening?
- At current market prices, Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection loses $29.03 on average. You are better off keeping it sealed or buying singles directly.
- What is the EV of a Paldean Fates booster pack?
- The expected value of a single Paldean Fates booster pack is $4.31 based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community pull rate data.
- What is the MSRP for Paldean Fates products?
- Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection launched at $15.99 MSRP. Compare that to the current sealed market price of $42.71 to see how far Paldean Fates pricing has moved from retail.
- What are the best cards to pull in Paldean Fates?
- The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates are Mew ex - 232/091 ($639.92), Charizard ex - 234/091 ($229.89), Gardevoir ex - 233/091 ($117.54).
- How often do you pull a chase card in Paldean Fates?
- Pull rates are based on 1,500 pack openings from community sources. See the pull rate table below for exact odds per rarity tier.
- What is the best Paldean Fates product to buy?
- Based on current EV calculations, Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection offers the best return at −68% (−$29.03). It contains 3 packs and is priced at $42.71.
- How often are Paldean Fates prices updated?
- All prices are updated daily at 21:00 UTC using TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV. EV calculations refresh automatically with each price update.
- What is cash-out EV for Paldean Fates?
- Cash-out EV is the expected value after marketplace fees, shipping, and liquidity discounts. We apply a 0.64x multiplier to market EV. For Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection, cash-out EV is $8.76 versus $13.68 market EV.
- How do pull rates work for Paldean Fates?
- Pull rates represent the probability of pulling each rarity tier from a single booster pack. They are based on 1,500 community pack openings. Each rarity tier has a different pull rate — higher rarities are harder to pull but typically more valuable.
As of March 2026, Paldean Fates products lose an average of $123.33 (−77%) based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community-sourced pull rate data from 1,500+ pack openings.