Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $41.46.
4 packs plus $6.15 in promo value produce $13.99 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−75%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $55.45.
Expected Loss
−$41.46
The average opening result after paying $55.45 sealed.
Open Average
$13.99
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$8.95
Expected range $0.73-$3.19 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.96
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$1.96 × 4 packs = $7.84
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$7.84 + $6.15 promos = $13.99
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$13.99 × 0.64 = $8.95
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $13.99 ÷ $55.45 = 25.2% • Cash-out: $8.95 ÷ $55.45 = 16.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.96 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $69.45 | 1.15% | $0.80 | $3.20 | 40.8% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $7.30 | 7.70% | $0.56 | $2.24 | 28.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.62 | 6.70% | $0.24 | $0.96 | 12.2% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.17 | 16.70% | $0.19 | $0.76 | 9.7% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $19.99 | 0.53% | $0.11 | $0.44 | 5.6% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.15 | 5.00% | $0.06 | $0.24 | 3.1% |
| Total | $1.96 | $7.84 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$307.27
+$1.28 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$174.00
+$0.72 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$31.89
+$0.44 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$108.06
+$0.44 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$28.24
+$0.36 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$78.11
+$0.28 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$18.83
+$0.24 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$4.67
+$0.16 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$3.92
+$0.16 EV
Mesprit - 204/191
#204/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$9.97
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($55.45) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($55.45) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($6.15) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $248.74 | $70.56 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $102.55 | $25.11 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $277.09 | $93.33 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $47.30 | $11.76 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $29.45 | $6.38 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $15.51 | $2.21 | −86% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $55.45 | $13.99 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $22.76 | $1.96 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $27.41 | $7.84 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $6.24 | $1.96 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |