Surging Sparks Booster Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $199.88.
36 packs produce $61.20 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−77%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $261.08.
Expected Loss
−$199.88
The average opening result after paying $261.08 sealed.
Open Average
$61.20
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$39.17
Expected range $0.66-$2.74 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.70
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$1.70 × 36 packs = $61.20
This product contains 36 booster packs.
$61.20 = $61.20
No promo value applied for this product.
$61.20 × 0.64 = $39.17
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $61.20 ÷ $261.08 = 23.4% • Cash-out: $39.17 ÷ $261.08 = 15.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.70 EV per pack for this 36-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/36pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $63.00 | 1.15% | $0.72 | $25.92 | 42.4% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $6.03 | 7.70% | $0.46 | $16.56 | 27.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.03 | 6.70% | $0.20 | $7.20 | 11.8% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.02 | 16.70% | $0.17 | $6.12 | 10.0% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $17.24 | 0.53% | $0.09 | $3.24 | 5.3% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.18 | 5.00% | $0.06 | $2.16 | 3.5% |
| Total | $1.70 | $61.20 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$256.27
+$9.72 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$171.56
+$6.48 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$94.58
+$3.60 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$26.26
+$3.24 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$22.05
+$2.52 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$16.87
+$2.16 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$62.81
+$2.16 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$3.56
+$1.08 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$3.20
+$1.08 EV
Mesprit - 204/191
#204/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$9.27
+$1.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $161.64. Current sealed price ($261.08) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($261.08) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $261.08 | $61.20 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $89.67 | $21.68 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $229.25 | $70.19 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $45.70 | $10.20 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $29.35 | $5.60 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $14.97 | $1.95 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $53.49 | $11.85 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $21.01 | $1.70 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $28.45 | $6.80 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $7.16 | $1.70 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |