Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $23.63.
3 packs plus $0.50 in promo value produce $5.72 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−81%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $29.35.
Expected Loss
−$23.63
The average opening result after paying $29.35 sealed.
Open Average
$5.72
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$3.66
Expected range $0.71-$2.77 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.74
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$1.74 × 3 packs = $5.22
This product contains 3 booster packs.
$5.22 + $0.50 promos = $5.72
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$5.72 × 0.64 = $3.66
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $5.72 ÷ $29.35 = 19.5% • Cash-out: $3.66 ÷ $29.35 = 12.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.74 EV per pack for this 3-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/3pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $62.89 | 1.15% | $0.72 | $2.16 | 41.4% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $6.13 | 7.70% | $0.47 | $1.41 | 27.0% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.10 | 6.70% | $0.21 | $0.63 | 12.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.13 | 16.70% | $0.19 | $0.57 | 10.9% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $17.44 | 0.53% | $0.09 | $0.27 | 5.2% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.19 | 5.00% | $0.06 | $0.18 | 3.4% |
| Total | $1.74 | $5.22 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$254.74
+$0.81 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$171.96
+$0.54 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$94.32
+$0.30 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$25.08
+$0.24 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$21.75
+$0.21 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$16.48
+$0.18 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$62.89
+$0.18 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$4.14
+$0.12 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$3.10
+$0.09 EV
Mesprit - 204/191
#204/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$9.52
+$0.09 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $13.99. Current sealed price ($29.35) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($29.35) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($0.50) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $264.22 | $62.64 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $88.32 | $21.78 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $231.25 | $70.78 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $46.01 | $10.44 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $29.35 | $5.72 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $14.97 | $1.99 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $53.49 | $12.01 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $21.00 | $1.74 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $28.45 | $6.96 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $6.79 | $1.74 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |