Surging Sparks ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $77.44.
9 packs plus $7.47 in promo value produce $25.11 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−76%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $102.55.
Expected Loss
−$77.44
The average opening result after paying $102.55 sealed.
Open Average
$25.11
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.07
Expected range $0.73-$3.19 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.96
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$1.96 × 9 packs = $17.64
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$17.64 + $7.47 promos = $25.11
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$25.11 × 0.64 = $16.07
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $25.11 ÷ $102.55 = 24.5% • Cash-out: $16.07 ÷ $102.55 = 15.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.96 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $69.45 | 1.15% | $0.80 | $7.20 | 40.8% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $7.30 | 7.70% | $0.56 | $5.04 | 28.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.62 | 6.70% | $0.24 | $2.16 | 12.2% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.17 | 16.70% | $0.19 | $1.71 | 9.7% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $19.99 | 0.53% | $0.11 | $0.99 | 5.6% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.15 | 5.00% | $0.06 | $0.54 | 3.1% |
| Total | $1.96 | $17.64 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$307.27
+$2.88 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$174.00
+$1.62 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$31.89
+$0.99 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$108.06
+$0.99 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$28.24
+$0.81 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$78.11
+$0.63 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$18.83
+$0.54 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$4.67
+$0.36 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$3.92
+$0.36 EV
Mesprit - 204/191
#204/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$9.97
+$0.27 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($102.55) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($102.55) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($7.47) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $248.74 | $70.56 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $102.55 | $25.11 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $277.09 | $93.33 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $47.30 | $11.76 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $29.45 | $6.38 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $15.51 | $2.21 | −86% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $55.45 | $13.99 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $22.76 | $1.96 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $27.41 | $7.84 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $6.24 | $1.96 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |