Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $36.24.
4 packs plus $2.28 in promo value produce $13.28 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−73%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $49.52.
Expected Loss
−$36.24
The average opening result after paying $49.52 sealed.
Open Average
$13.28
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$8.50
Expected range $0.75-$4.75 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.75
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.75 × 4 packs = $11.00
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$11.00 + $2.28 promos = $13.28
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$13.28 × 0.64 = $8.50
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $13.28 ÷ $49.52 = 26.8% • Cash-out: $8.50 ÷ $49.52 = 17.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.75 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 21 | $14.17 | 7.70% | $1.09 | $4.36 | 39.6% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $72.85 | 1.20% | $0.87 | $3.48 | 31.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $4.23 | 6.60% | $0.28 | $1.12 | 10.2% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 6 | $4.91 | 5.10% | $0.25 | $1.00 | 9.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 14 | $1.26 | 16.90% | $0.21 | $0.84 | 7.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $6.96 | 0.68% | $0.05 | $0.20 | 1.8% |
| Total | $2.75 | $11.00 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Twilight Masquerade, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Greninja ex - 214/167
#214/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$361.38
+$1.56 EV
Eevee - 188/167
#188/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$87.96
+$1.28 EV
Chansey - 187/167
#187/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$53.21
+$0.80 EV
Perrin - 220/167
#220/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$172.90
+$0.76 EV
Unfair Stamp
#165/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$17.41
+$0.60 EV
Hisuian Growlithe - 181/167
#181/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$24.83
+$0.36 EV
Carmine - 217/167
#217/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$70.91
+$0.32 EV
Secret Box
#163/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$8.56
+$0.28 EV
Dragapult ex - 200/167
#200/167 · UR
1 in 318 packs
$17.55
+$0.24 EV
Teal Mask Ogerpon ex - 025/167
#025/167 · RR
1 in 83 packs
$4.34
+$0.20 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Twilight-Masquerade-Pull-Rates, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/18/twilight-masquerade-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($49.52) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($49.52) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.28) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Box | $339.15 | $99.00 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade ETB | $88.00 | $26.15 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade PC ETB | $179.71 | $57.52 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle | $60.59 | $16.50 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade 3 Pack Blister | $33.40 | $8.75 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Single Pack Blister | $11.42 | $3.00 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box | $49.52 | $13.28 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Sleeved Booster | $8.94 | $2.75 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Art Bundle | $34.57 | $11.00 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack | $7.31 | $2.75 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |