Twilight Masquerade ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $58.65.
9 packs plus $1.35 in promo value produce $21.06 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−74%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $79.71.
Expected Loss
−$58.65
The average opening result after paying $79.71 sealed.
Open Average
$21.06
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$13.48
Expected range $0.69-$3.69 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.19
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.19 × 9 packs = $19.71
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$19.71 + $1.35 promos = $21.06
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$21.06 × 0.64 = $13.48
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $21.06 ÷ $79.71 = 26.4% • Cash-out: $13.48 ÷ $79.71 = 16.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.19 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 21 | $11.48 | 7.70% | $0.88 | $7.92 | 40.2% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $56.94 | 1.20% | $0.68 | $6.12 | 31.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.40 | 6.60% | $0.22 | $1.98 | 10.0% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 6 | $3.70 | 5.10% | $0.19 | $1.71 | 8.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 14 | $1.00 | 16.90% | $0.17 | $1.53 | 7.8% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $7.04 | 0.68% | $0.05 | $0.45 | 2.3% |
| Total | $2.19 | $19.71 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Twilight Masquerade, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Greninja ex - 214/167
#214/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$277.61
+$2.70 EV
Eevee - 188/167
#188/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$69.94
+$2.34 EV
Chansey - 187/167
#187/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$34.73
+$1.17 EV
Perrin - 220/167
#220/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$113.93
+$1.08 EV
Unfair Stamp
#165/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$10.06
+$0.81 EV
Hisuian Growlithe - 181/167
#181/167 · IR
1 in 273 packs
$21.16
+$0.72 EV
Secret Box
#163/167 · ACE
1 in 118 packs
$9.97
+$0.72 EV
Carmine - 217/167
#217/167 · SIR
1 in 917 packs
$58.91
+$0.54 EV
Dragapult ex - 200/167
#200/167 · UR
1 in 318 packs
$11.16
+$0.36 EV
Teal Mask Ogerpon ex - 025/167
#025/167 · RR
1 in 83 packs
$2.37
+$0.27 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Twilight-Masquerade-Pull-Rates, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/18/twilight-masquerade-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($79.71) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($79.71) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.35) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Box | $335.11 | $78.84 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade ETB | $79.71 | $21.06 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade PC ETB | $151.46 | $47.02 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle | $53.49 | $13.14 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade 3 Pack Blister | $31.85 | $7.07 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Single Pack Blister | $10.99 | $2.44 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box | $47.07 | $10.87 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Sleeved Booster | $8.21 | $2.19 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Art Bundle | $32.18 | $8.76 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack | $7.87 | $2.19 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |