Rip or Flip
Twilight Masquerade ETB

Price Snapshot

Current Market

$79.71

MSRP

$49.99

Spread: +$29.72 (59%) above MSRP

Buy on TCGPlayer →
KEEP SEALEDTwilight Masquerade9 packs+ $1.35 promos

Twilight Masquerade ETB

Average opening value trails the buy-in by $58.65.

9 packs plus $1.35 in promo value produce $21.06 of average market value.

Return vs Market

−74%

Compared with today's sealed market price of $79.71.

Expected Loss

−$58.65

The average opening result after paying $79.71 sealed.

Open Average

$21.06

Average market value from packs and included promos.

Cash-out EV

$13.48

Expected range $0.69-$3.69 per pack.

Prices just now · EV just now · High confidence

Price History

Recent sealed price movement for this product.

Sealed History

Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.

How the EV is Calculated

Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.

01

EV per booster pack = $2.19

Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.

02

$2.19 × 9 packs = $19.71

This product contains 9 booster packs.

03

$19.71 + $1.35 promos = $21.06

Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.

04

$21.06 × 0.64 = $13.48

Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.

05

Market: $21.06 ÷ $79.71 = 26.4%Cash-out: $13.48 ÷ $79.71 = 16.9%

Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

EV by Rarity Tier

Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.19 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.

RarityCardsAvg ValuePull RateEV/PackEV/9pk% of Total
Illustration Rare(IR)21$11.487.70%$0.88$7.9240.2%
Special Illustration Rare(SIR)11$56.941.20%$0.68$6.1231.1%
Ultra Rare(UR)21$3.406.60%$0.22$1.9810.0%
ACE SPEC Rare(ACE)6$3.705.10%$0.19$1.718.7%
Double Rare(RR)14$1.0016.90%$0.17$1.537.8%
Hyper Rare(HR)6$7.040.68%$0.05$0.452.3%
Total$2.19$19.71100%

Promo Cards

Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.

$1.35 total promo EV

Top 10 Cards You Could Pull

The most valuable cards in Twilight Masquerade, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.

Assumptions

Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.

Expand assumptions
  • Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Twilight-Masquerade-Pull-Rates, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/18/twilight-masquerade-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
  • MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($79.71) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
  • Sealed price ($79.71) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
  • Promo value ($1.35) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
  • Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
  • EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.

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Other Products in This Set

ProductPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Twilight Masquerade Booster Box$335.11$78.84−76%KEEP SEALED
Twilight Masquerade ETB$79.71$21.06−74%KEEP SEALED
Twilight Masquerade PC ETB$151.46$47.02−69%KEEP SEALED
Twilight Masquerade Booster Bundle$53.49$13.14−75%KEEP SEALED
Twilight Masquerade 3 Pack Blister$31.85$7.07−78%KEEP SEALED
Twilight Masquerade Single Pack Blister$10.99$2.44−78%KEEP SEALED
Twilight Masquerade Build & Battle Box$47.07$10.87−77%KEEP SEALED
Twilight Masquerade Sleeved Booster$8.21$2.19−73%KEEP SEALED
Twilight Masquerade Art Bundle$32.18$8.76−73%KEEP SEALED
Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack$7.87$2.19−72%KEEP SEALED
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