Shining Fates Premium Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $99.20.
7 packs plus $3.00 in promo value produce $7.41 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−93%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $106.61.
Expected Loss
−$99.20
The average opening result after paying $106.61 sealed.
Open Average
$7.41
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$4.74
Expected range $0.18-$1.08 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.63
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$0.63 × 7 packs = $4.41
This product contains 7 booster packs.
$4.41 + $3.00 promos = $7.41
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$7.41 × 0.64 = $4.74
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $7.41 ÷ $106.61 = 7.0% • Cash-out: $4.74 ÷ $106.61 = 4.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.63 EV per pack for this 7-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/7pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.37 | 18.00% | $0.43 | $3.01 | 68.3% |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $1.80 | 5.70% | $0.10 | $0.70 | 15.9% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.23 | 22.00% | $0.05 | $0.35 | 7.9% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $4.76 | 1.10% | $0.05 | $0.35 | 7.9% |
| Total | $0.63 | $4.41 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shining Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Skyla (Full Art)
#072/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$10.65
+$0.56 EV
Poke Kid (Full Art)
#070/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$7.68
+$0.42 EV
Alcremie V (Full Art)
#064/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$6.09
+$0.35 EV
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
#073/072 · SR
1 in 91 packs
$4.76
+$0.35 EV
Kyogre
#021/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.29
+$0.28 EV
Reshiram
#017/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$1.69
+$0.21 EV
Yveltal
#046/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$1.42
+$0.21 EV
Decidueye
#008/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.29
+$0.07 EV
Galarian Weezing
#042/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.07 EV
Frosmoth
#030/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.24
+$0.07 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($106.61) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($106.61) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($3.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Fates ETB | $114.47 | $9.92 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates V Tin | $55.23 | $4.15 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Collection | $46.41 | $4.02 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Premium Collection | $106.61 | $7.41 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection | $61.25 | $2.39 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mini Tin | $27.61 | $1.26 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Booster Pack | $12.87 | $0.63 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |