Shining Fates Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $42.43.
4 packs plus $1.50 in promo value produce $3.98 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−91%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $46.41.
Expected Loss
−$42.43
The average opening result after paying $46.41 sealed.
Open Average
$3.98
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$2.55
Expected range $0.18-$1.06 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.62
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$0.62 × 4 packs = $2.48
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$2.48 + $1.50 promos = $3.98
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$3.98 × 0.64 = $2.55
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $3.98 ÷ $46.41 = 8.6% • Cash-out: $2.55 ÷ $46.41 = 5.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.62 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.33 | 18.00% | $0.42 | $1.68 | 67.7% |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $1.77 | 5.70% | $0.10 | $0.40 | 16.1% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.22 | 22.00% | $0.05 | $0.20 | 8.1% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $4.70 | 1.10% | $0.05 | $0.20 | 8.1% |
| Total | $0.62 | $2.48 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shining Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Skyla (Full Art)
#072/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$10.48
+$0.32 EV
Poke Kid (Full Art)
#070/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$7.67
+$0.24 EV
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
#073/072 · SR
1 in 91 packs
$4.70
+$0.20 EV
Alcremie V (Full Art)
#064/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$5.54
+$0.16 EV
Kyogre
#021/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.28
+$0.16 EV
Reshiram
#017/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$1.66
+$0.12 EV
Yveltal
#046/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$1.38
+$0.12 EV
Decidueye
#008/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.28
+$0.04 EV
Galarian Weezing
#042/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.26
+$0.04 EV
Frosmoth
#030/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.24
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $24.99. Current sealed price ($46.41) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($46.41) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.50) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Fates ETB | $114.67 | $10.14 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates V Tin | $55.19 | $4.10 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Collection | $46.41 | $3.98 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Premium Collection | $106.54 | $7.34 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection | $61.35 | $2.36 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mini Tin | $27.61 | $1.24 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Booster Pack | $12.87 | $0.62 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |