Shining Fates
Don't rip Shining Fates right now.
−91%
$114.67 sealed → $10.14 EV | EV/pack: $0.62
Even the best product loses −$104.53 on average.
If you must open something: Shining Fates ETB loses the least at −$104.53.
Best product to check
Shining Fates ETB
MSRP $49.99 • Market price $114.67 • Return −91%
Set EV History
Recent movement in set-level EV based on current pricing and pull-rate assumptions.
EV Trend
EV per pack and best product return over time.
Best Sealed Products
Browse the current set products sorted by return, price, and market EV.
All 7 Products
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4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Chase Cards
What you could pull from this set, ranked by value.
Deep Dives
Expandable sections for the EV math, pull-rate tables, and editorial FAQ.
The Math — EV Breakdown & Pull Rates
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Range | Pull Rate | EV/Pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.33 | $0.58–$10.48 | 18.00% | $0.42 |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $1.77 | $1.38–$2.28 | 5.70% | $0.10 |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.22 | $0.14–$0.28 | 22.00% | $0.05 |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $4.70 | $4.70–$4.70 | 1.10% | $0.05 |
| Total EV / Pack | $0.62 | ||||
| Rarity | Pull Rate | Odds | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare(H) | 22.00% | 1 in 5 | 500 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 18.00% | 1 in 6 | 500 |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 5.70% | 1 in 18 | 500 |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1.10% | 1 in 91 | 500 |
Sources: https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Shining Fates worth opening?
- At current market prices, Shining Fates ETB loses $104.53 on average. You are better off keeping it sealed or buying singles directly.
- What is the EV of a Shining Fates booster pack?
- The expected value of a single Shining Fates booster pack is $0.62 based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community pull rate data.
- What is the MSRP for Shining Fates products?
- Shining Fates ETB launched at $49.99 MSRP. Compare that to the current sealed market price of $114.67 to see how far Shining Fates pricing has moved from retail.
- What are the best cards to pull in Shining Fates?
- The most valuable cards in Shining Fates are Skyla (Full Art) ($10.48), Poke Kid (Full Art) ($7.67), Alcremie VMAX (Secret) ($4.70).
- How often do you pull a chase card in Shining Fates?
- Pull rates are based on 500 pack openings from community sources. See the pull rate table below for exact odds per rarity tier.
- What is the best Shining Fates product to buy?
- Based on current EV calculations, Shining Fates ETB offers the best return at −91% (−$104.53). It contains 10 packs and is priced at $114.67.
- How often are Shining Fates prices updated?
- All prices are updated daily at 21:00 UTC using TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV. EV calculations refresh automatically with each price update.
- What is cash-out EV for Shining Fates?
- Cash-out EV is the expected value after marketplace fees, shipping, and liquidity discounts. We apply a 0.64x multiplier to market EV. For Shining Fates ETB, cash-out EV is $6.49 versus $10.14 market EV.
- How do pull rates work for Shining Fates?
- Pull rates represent the probability of pulling each rarity tier from a single booster pack. They are based on 500 community pack openings. Each rarity tier has a different pull rate — higher rarities are harder to pull but typically more valuable.
As of March 2026, Shining Fates products lose an average of $56.41 (−94%) based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community-sourced pull rate data from 500+ pack openings.