Shining Fates Booster Pack
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $12.24.
1 packs produce $0.63 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−95%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $12.87.
Expected Loss
−$12.24
The average opening result after paying $12.87 sealed.
Open Average
$0.63
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$0.40
Expected range $0.18-$1.08 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.63
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$0.63 × 1 packs = $0.63
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$0.63 = $0.63
No promo value applied for this product.
$0.63 × 0.64 = $0.40
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $0.63 ÷ $12.87 = 4.9% • Cash-out: $0.40 ÷ $12.87 = 3.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.63 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 23 | $2.37 | 18.00% | $0.43 | $0.43 | 68.3% |
| Amazing Rare(AR) | 3 | $1.80 | 5.70% | $0.10 | $0.10 | 15.9% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 7 | $0.23 | 22.00% | $0.05 | $0.05 | 7.9% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $4.76 | 1.10% | $0.05 | $0.05 | 7.9% |
| Total | $0.63 | $0.63 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Shining Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Skyla (Full Art)
#072/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$10.65
+$0.08 EV
Poke Kid (Full Art)
#070/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$7.68
+$0.06 EV
Alcremie V (Full Art)
#064/072 · UR
1 in 128 packs
$6.09
+$0.05 EV
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
#073/072 · SR
1 in 91 packs
$4.76
+$0.05 EV
Kyogre
#021/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$2.29
+$0.04 EV
Reshiram
#017/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$1.69
+$0.03 EV
Yveltal
#046/072 · AR
1 in 53 packs
$1.42
+$0.03 EV
Decidueye
#008/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.29
+$0.01 EV
Galarian Weezing
#042/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.27
+$0.01 EV
Frosmoth
#030/072 · H
1 in 32 packs
$0.24
+$0.01 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($12.87) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($12.87) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Fates ETB | $114.47 | $9.92 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates V Tin | $55.23 | $4.15 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Collection | $46.41 | $4.02 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Premium Collection | $106.61 | $7.41 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection | $61.25 | $2.39 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Mini Tin | $27.61 | $1.26 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shining Fates Booster Pack | $12.87 | $0.63 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |