Rip or Flip
Shining Fates Booster Pack

Price Snapshot

Current Market

$14.23

MSRP

$4.49

Spread: +$9.74 (217%) above MSRP

Buy on TCGPlayer →
KEEP SEALEDShining Fates1 pack

Shining Fates Booster Pack

Average opening value trails the buy-in by $13.55.

1 packs produce $0.68 of average market value at current prices.

Return vs Market

−95%

Compared with today's sealed market price of $14.23.

Expected Loss

−$13.55

The average opening result after paying $14.23 sealed.

Open Average

$0.68

Average market value from packs and included promos.

Cash-out EV

$0.44

Expected range $0.20-$1.16 per pack.

Prices just now · EV just now · Low confidence

Price History

Recent sealed price movement for this product.

Sealed History

Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.

How the EV is Calculated

Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.

01

EV per booster pack = $0.68

Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.

02

$0.68 × 1 packs = $0.68

This product contains 1 booster pack.

03

$0.68 = $0.68

No promo value applied for this product.

04

$0.68 × 0.64 = $0.44

Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.

05

Market: $0.68 ÷ $14.23 = 4.8%Cash-out: $0.44 ÷ $14.23 = 3.1%

Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

EV by Rarity Tier

Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.68 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.

RarityCardsAvg ValuePull RateEV/PackEV/1pk% of Total
Ultra Rare(UR)23$2.4918.00%$0.45$0.4566.2%
Amazing Rare(AR)3$2.235.70%$0.13$0.1319.1%
Holo Rare(H)7$0.2422.00%$0.05$0.057.4%
Secret Rare(SR)1$4.881.10%$0.05$0.057.4%
Total$0.68$0.68100%

Top 10 Cards You Could Pull

The most valuable cards in Shining Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.

Assumptions

Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.

Expand assumptions
  • Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/shining-fates-shiny-vault, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
  • MSRP is $4.49. Current sealed price ($14.23) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
  • Sealed price ($14.23) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
  • Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
  • EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.

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Other Products in This Set

ProductPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Shining Fates ETB$129.52$11.45−91%KEEP SEALED
Shining Fates V Tin$56.05$4.40−92%KEEP SEALED
Shining Fates Collection$47.80$4.22−91%KEEP SEALED
Shining Fates Premium Collection$112.02$7.76−93%KEEP SEALED
Shining Fates Mad Party Pin Collection$40.12$2.54−94%KEEP SEALED
Shining Fates Mini Tin$29.63$1.36−95%KEEP SEALED
Shining Fates Booster Pack$14.23$0.68−95%KEEP SEALED

Compare Packs Across Sets

See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.

PackSetPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Ascended Heroes Booster PackAscended Heroes$12.38$7.43−40%KEEP SEALED
Black Bolt Booster PackBlack Bolt$10.16$4.76−53%KEEP SEALED
White Flare Booster PackWhite Flare$9.51$4.37−54%KEEP SEALED
Perfect Order Booster PackPerfect Order$6.33$2.78−56%KEEP SEALED
Shrouded Fable Booster PackShrouded Fable$8.94$3.85−57%KEEP SEALED
Perfect Order Sleeved BoosterPerfect Order$6.73$2.78−59%KEEP SEALED
Perfect Order 3 Pack BlisterPerfect Order$21.42$8.84−59%KEEP SEALED
Phantasmal Flames Booster PackPhantasmal Flames$9.19$3.75−59%KEEP SEALED
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