Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $29.61.
4 packs plus $5.34 in promo value produce $16.42 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−64%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $46.03.
Expected Loss
−$29.61
The average opening result after paying $46.03 sealed.
Open Average
$16.42
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$10.51
Expected range $1.11-$4.43 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.77
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.77 × 4 packs = $11.08
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$11.08 + $5.34 promos = $16.42
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$16.42 × 0.64 = $10.51
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $16.42 ÷ $46.03 = 35.7% • Cash-out: $10.51 ÷ $46.03 = 22.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.77 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 12 | $16.40 | 7.70% | $1.26 | $5.04 | 45.5% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $24.52 | 3.10% | $0.76 | $3.04 | 27.4% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $16.62 | 1.90% | $0.32 | $1.28 | 11.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 12 | $3.52 | 6.70% | $0.24 | $0.96 | 8.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 21 | $1.33 | 14.30% | $0.19 | $0.76 | 6.9% |
| Total | $2.77 | $11.08 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Obsidian Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 223/197
#223/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$111.30
+$2.32 EV
Ninetales -199/197
#199/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$43.06
+$1.12 EV
Cleffa - 202/197
#202/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$41.67
+$1.08 EV
Charizard ex - 228/197
#228/197 · HR
1 in 158 packs
$42.53
+$1.08 EV
Gloom - 198/197
#198/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$24.92
+$0.64 EV
Charizard ex - 215/197
#215/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$20.86
+$0.48 EV
Pidgeot ex - 225/197
#225/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$18.23
+$0.36 EV
Charizard ex - 125/197
#125/197 · RR
1 in 147 packs
$5.63
+$0.16 EV
Tyranitar ex - 211/197
#211/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$6.18
+$0.12 EV
Revavroom ex - 224/197
#224/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$5.99
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Obsidian-Flames-Pull-Rates/e2a66999-a7b5-4621-9765-c9a132e04bd2/, https://www.digitaltq.com/obsidian-flames-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/sv3/obsidian-flames/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($46.03) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($46.03) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($5.34) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames Booster Box | $369.43 | $99.72 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames ETB | $253.63 | $95.42 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle | $81.52 | $16.62 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister | $30.70 | $8.81 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Single Pack Blister | $10.27 | $3.02 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box | $46.03 | $16.42 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Sleeved Booster | $12.38 | $2.77 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Pack | $10.79 | $2.77 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |