Obsidian Flames ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $108.83.
9 packs plus $60.21 in promo value produce $79.11 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−58%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $187.94.
Expected Loss
−$108.83
The average opening result after paying $187.94 sealed.
Open Average
$79.11
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$50.63
Expected range $0.81-$3.39 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.10
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.10 × 9 packs = $18.90
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$18.90 + $60.21 promos = $79.11
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$79.11 × 0.64 = $50.63
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $79.11 ÷ $187.94 = 42.1% • Cash-out: $50.63 ÷ $187.94 = 26.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.10 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 12 | $10.64 | 7.70% | $0.82 | $7.38 | 39.0% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $20.79 | 3.10% | $0.64 | $5.76 | 30.5% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $13.77 | 1.90% | $0.26 | $2.34 | 12.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 12 | $3.08 | 6.70% | $0.21 | $1.89 | 10.0% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 21 | $1.22 | 14.30% | $0.17 | $1.53 | 8.1% |
| Total | $2.10 | $18.90 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Obsidian Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 223/197
#223/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$94.43
+$4.41 EV
Charizard ex - 228/197
#228/197 · HR
1 in 158 packs
$35.18
+$1.98 EV
Ninetales -199/197
#199/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$29.73
+$1.71 EV
Cleffa - 202/197
#202/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$21.75
+$1.26 EV
Charizard ex - 215/197
#215/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$18.99
+$0.99 EV
Gloom - 198/197
#198/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$16.12
+$0.90 EV
Pidgeot ex - 225/197
#225/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$16.36
+$0.72 EV
Charizard ex - 125/197
#125/197 · RR
1 in 147 packs
$5.69
+$0.36 EV
Tyranitar ex - 211/197
#211/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$4.77
+$0.27 EV
Eiscue ex - 222/197
#222/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$4.91
+$0.27 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Obsidian-Flames-Pull-Rates/e2a66999-a7b5-4621-9765-c9a132e04bd2/, https://www.digitaltq.com/obsidian-flames-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/sv3/obsidian-flames/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($187.94) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($187.94) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($60.21) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames Booster Box | $348.10 | $75.60 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames ETB | $187.94 | $79.11 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | $570.36 | $250.51 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle | $71.44 | $12.60 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister | $29.35 | $6.80 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Single Pack Blister | $9.75 | $2.35 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box | $41.32 | $13.49 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Sleeved Booster | $9.99 | $2.10 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Pack | $10.13 | $2.10 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |