Rip or Flip
Obsidian Flames ETB

Price Snapshot

Current Market

$187.94

MSRP

$49.99

Spread: +$137.95 (276%) above MSRP

Buy on TCGPlayer →
KEEP SEALEDObsidian Flames9 packs+ $60.21 promos

Obsidian Flames ETB

Average opening value trails the buy-in by $108.83.

9 packs plus $60.21 in promo value produce $79.11 of average market value.

Return vs Market

−58%

Compared with today's sealed market price of $187.94.

Expected Loss

−$108.83

The average opening result after paying $187.94 sealed.

Open Average

$79.11

Average market value from packs and included promos.

Cash-out EV

$50.63

Expected range $0.81-$3.39 per pack.

Prices just now · EV just now · High confidence

Price History

Recent sealed price movement for this product.

Sealed History

Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.

How the EV is Calculated

Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.

01

EV per booster pack = $2.10

Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.

02

$2.10 × 9 packs = $18.90

This product contains 9 booster packs.

03

$18.90 + $60.21 promos = $79.11

Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.

04

$79.11 × 0.64 = $50.63

Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.

05

Market: $79.11 ÷ $187.94 = 42.1%Cash-out: $50.63 ÷ $187.94 = 26.9%

Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

EV by Rarity Tier

Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.10 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.

RarityCardsAvg ValuePull RateEV/PackEV/9pk% of Total
Illustration Rare(IR)12$10.647.70%$0.82$7.3839.0%
Special Illustration Rare(SIR)6$20.793.10%$0.64$5.7630.5%
Hyper Rare(HR)3$13.771.90%$0.26$2.3412.4%
Ultra Rare(UR)12$3.086.70%$0.21$1.8910.0%
Double Rare(RR)21$1.2214.30%$0.17$1.538.1%
Total$2.10$18.90100%

Promo Cards

Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.

$60.21 total promo EV

Top 10 Cards You Could Pull

The most valuable cards in Obsidian Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.

Assumptions

Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.

Expand assumptions
  • Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Obsidian-Flames-Pull-Rates/e2a66999-a7b5-4621-9765-c9a132e04bd2/, https://www.digitaltq.com/obsidian-flames-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/sv3/obsidian-flames/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
  • MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($187.94) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
  • Sealed price ($187.94) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
  • Promo value ($60.21) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
  • Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
  • EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.

Partner

You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.

Try Free for 1 Month

Other Products in This Set

ProductPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Obsidian Flames Booster Box$348.10$75.60−78%KEEP SEALED
Obsidian Flames ETB$187.94$79.11−58%KEEP SEALED
Obsidian Flames PC ETB$570.36$250.51−56%KEEP SEALED
Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle$71.44$12.60−82%KEEP SEALED
Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister$29.35$6.80−77%KEEP SEALED
Obsidian Flames Single Pack Blister$9.75$2.35−76%KEEP SEALED
Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box$41.32$13.49−67%KEEP SEALED
Obsidian Flames Sleeved Booster$9.99$2.10−79%KEEP SEALED
Obsidian Flames Booster Pack$10.13$2.10−79%KEEP SEALED
← Back to all Obsidian Flames products