Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $22.58.
3 packs plus $0.50 in promo value produce $6.77 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−77%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $29.35.
Expected Loss
−$22.58
The average opening result after paying $29.35 sealed.
Open Average
$6.77
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$4.33
Expected range $0.83-$3.35 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.09
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.09 × 3 packs = $6.27
This product contains 3 booster packs.
$6.27 + $0.50 promos = $6.77
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$6.77 × 0.64 = $4.33
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $6.77 ÷ $29.35 = 23.1% • Cash-out: $4.33 ÷ $29.35 = 14.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.09 EV per pack for this 3-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/3pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 12 | $10.53 | 7.70% | $0.81 | $2.43 | 38.8% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $20.54 | 3.10% | $0.64 | $1.92 | 30.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $13.55 | 1.90% | $0.26 | $0.78 | 12.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 12 | $3.03 | 6.70% | $0.20 | $0.60 | 9.6% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 21 | $1.27 | 14.30% | $0.18 | $0.54 | 8.6% |
| Total | $2.09 | $6.27 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Obsidian Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 223/197
#223/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$92.77
+$1.44 EV
Charizard ex - 228/197
#228/197 · HR
1 in 158 packs
$34.55
+$0.66 EV
Ninetales -199/197
#199/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$29.71
+$0.57 EV
Cleffa - 202/197
#202/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$20.69
+$0.39 EV
Gloom - 198/197
#198/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$15.79
+$0.30 EV
Charizard ex - 215/197
#215/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$18.73
+$0.30 EV
Pidgeot ex - 225/197
#225/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$16.77
+$0.27 EV
Charizard ex - 125/197
#125/197 · RR
1 in 147 packs
$5.96
+$0.12 EV
Tyranitar ex - 211/197
#211/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$4.68
+$0.09 EV
Eiscue ex - 222/197
#222/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$4.87
+$0.09 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Obsidian-Flames-Pull-Rates/e2a66999-a7b5-4621-9765-c9a132e04bd2/, https://www.digitaltq.com/obsidian-flames-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/sv3/obsidian-flames/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $13.99. Current sealed price ($29.35) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($29.35) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($0.50) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames Booster Box | $347.94 | $75.24 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames ETB | $185.22 | $73.15 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | $562.62 | $241.84 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle | $71.44 | $12.54 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister | $29.35 | $6.77 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Single Pack Blister | $9.75 | $2.34 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box | $41.21 | $13.46 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Sleeved Booster | $9.78 | $2.09 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Pack | $10.10 | $2.09 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |