White Flare Binder Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $38.92.
4 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $16.52 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−70%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $55.44.
Expected Loss
−$38.92
The average opening result after paying $55.44 sealed.
Open Average
$16.52
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$10.57
Expected range $2.24-$5.52 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.88
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 700 pack openings.
$3.88 × 4 packs = $15.52
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$15.52 + $1.00 promos = $16.52
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$16.52 × 0.64 = $10.57
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $16.52 ÷ $55.44 = 29.8% • Cash-out: $10.57 ÷ $55.44 = 19.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.88 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 70 | $13.34 | 16.40% | $2.19 | $8.76 | 56.4% |
| Black White Rare(BWR) | 2 | $371.65 | 0.20% | $0.74 | $2.96 | 19.1% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $55.85 | 1.25% | $0.70 | $2.80 | 18.0% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8 | $2.52 | 5.80% | $0.15 | $0.60 | 3.9% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $0.47 | 21.10% | $0.10 | $0.40 | 2.6% |
| Total | $3.88 | $15.52 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in White Flare, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Victini - 172/086
#172/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$389.43
+$1.56 EV
Reshiram ex - 173/086
#173/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$353.87
+$1.40 EV
Reshiram ex - 166/086
#166/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$153.52
+$1.08 EV
Hydreigon ex - 169/086
#169/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$73.25
+$0.52 EV
Zoroark - 143/086
#143/086 · IR
1 in 427 packs
$46.16
+$0.44 EV
Oshawott - 105/086
#105/086 · IR
1 in 427 packs
$45.22
+$0.44 EV
Chandelure - 103/086
#103/086 · IR
1 in 427 packs
$41.18
+$0.40 EV
Hilda - 171/086
#171/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$52.34
+$0.36 EV
Hilda - 164/086
#164/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$10.83
+$0.32 EV
Whimsicott ex
#005/086 · RR
1 in 28 packs
$0.50
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 700 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Black-Bolt-and-White-Flare-Pull-Rates/bac92199-a2a7-4668-b4a4-2647a111776f/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-odds/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/07/20/black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-sets/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($55.44) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($55.44) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Flare ETB | $90.48 | $36.21 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare PC ETB | $189.79 | $61.77 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Booster Bundle | $55.06 | $23.28 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Binder Collection | $55.44 | $16.52 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Tech Sticker Collection | $30.07 | $12.39 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Booster Pack | $9.33 | $3.88 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |