White Flare ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $55.79.
9 packs plus $1.16 in promo value produce $36.17 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−61%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $91.96.
Expected Loss
−$55.79
The average opening result after paying $91.96 sealed.
Open Average
$36.17
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$23.15
Expected range $2.25-$5.53 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.89
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 700 pack openings.
$3.89 × 9 packs = $35.01
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$35.01 + $1.16 promos = $36.17
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$36.17 × 0.64 = $23.15
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $36.17 ÷ $91.96 = 39.3% • Cash-out: $23.15 ÷ $91.96 = 25.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.89 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 70 | $13.39 | 16.40% | $2.20 | $19.80 | 56.6% |
| Black White Rare(BWR) | 2 | $371.51 | 0.20% | $0.74 | $6.66 | 19.0% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $55.91 | 1.25% | $0.70 | $6.30 | 18.0% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8 | $2.52 | 5.80% | $0.15 | $1.35 | 3.9% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $0.49 | 21.10% | $0.10 | $0.90 | 2.6% |
| Total | $3.89 | $35.01 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in White Flare, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Victini - 172/086
#172/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$388.89
+$3.51 EV
Reshiram ex - 173/086
#173/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$354.13
+$3.15 EV
Reshiram ex - 166/086
#166/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$153.52
+$2.43 EV
Hydreigon ex - 169/086
#169/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$73.77
+$1.17 EV
Zoroark - 143/086
#143/086 · IR
1 in 427 packs
$46.46
+$0.99 EV
Oshawott - 105/086
#105/086 · IR
1 in 427 packs
$45.32
+$0.99 EV
Chandelure - 103/086
#103/086 · IR
1 in 427 packs
$41.24
+$0.90 EV
Hilda - 171/086
#171/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$52.28
+$0.81 EV
Hilda - 164/086
#164/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$10.67
+$0.72 EV
Reshiram ex
#020/086 · RR
1 in 28 packs
$0.55
+$0.18 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 700 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Black-Bolt-and-White-Flare-Pull-Rates/bac92199-a2a7-4668-b4a4-2647a111776f/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-odds/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/07/20/black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-sets/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($91.96) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($91.96) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.16) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Flare ETB | $91.96 | $36.17 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare PC ETB | $190.19 | $61.65 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Booster Bundle | $55.84 | $23.34 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Binder Collection | $55.97 | $16.56 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Tech Sticker Collection | $30.07 | $12.42 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Booster Pack | $9.40 | $3.89 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |