Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $35.57.
7 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $26.27 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−58%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $61.84.
Expected Loss
−$35.57
The average opening result after paying $61.84 sealed.
Open Average
$26.27
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.81
Expected range $0.00-$9.33 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.61
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 1,200 pack openings.
$3.61 × 7 packs = $25.27
This product contains 7 booster packs.
$25.27 + $1.00 promos = $26.27
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$26.27 × 0.64 = $16.81
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $26.27 ÷ $61.84 = 42.5% • Cash-out: $16.81 ÷ $61.84 = 27.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.61 EV per pack for this 7-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/7pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 32 | $140.09 | 2.20% | $3.08 | $21.56 | 85.3% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 26 | $1.93 | 16.70% | $0.32 | $2.24 | 8.9% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 5 | $17.68 | 0.80% | $0.14 | $0.98 | 3.9% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 12 | $0.70 | 7.70% | $0.05 | $0.35 | 1.4% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 6 | $0.52 | 4.70% | $0.02 | $0.14 | 0.6% |
| Total | $3.61 | $25.27 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Prismatic Evolutions, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Umbreon ex - 161/131
#161/131 · SIR
1 in 1455 packs
$1476.14
+$7.07 EV
Sylveon ex - 156/131
#156/131 · SIR
1 in 1455 packs
$397.16
+$1.89 EV
Espeon ex - 155/131
#155/131 · SIR
1 in 1455 packs
$289.88
+$1.40 EV
Pikachu ex - 179/131
#179/131 · HR
1 in 625 packs
$58.84
+$0.63 EV
Umbreon ex - 060/131
#060/131 · RR
1 in 156 packs
$5.46
+$0.28 EV
Eevee ex - 075/131
#075/131 · RR
1 in 156 packs
$5.31
+$0.21 EV
Flareon ex - 014/131
#014/131 · RR
1 in 156 packs
$4.43
+$0.21 EV
Eri
#136/131 · UR
1 in 156 packs
$1.12
+$0.07 EV
Friends in Paldea - 137/131
#137/131 · UR
1 in 156 packs
$1.11
+$0.07 EV
Larry's Skill - 139/131
#139/131 · UR
1 in 156 packs
$0.85
+$0.07 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,200 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Prismatic-Evolutions-Pull-Rates, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-prismatic-evolutions-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $22.99. Current sealed price ($61.84) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($61.84) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |