151 Alakazam ex Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $68.10.
4 packs plus $2.00 in promo value produce $42.36 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−62%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $110.46.
Expected Loss
−$68.10
The average opening result after paying $110.46 sealed.
Open Average
$42.36
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$27.11
Expected range $5.22-$14.96 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $10.09
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$10.09 × 4 packs = $40.36
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$40.36 + $2.00 promos = $42.36
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$42.36 × 0.64 = $27.11
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $42.36 ÷ $110.46 = 38.4% • Cash-out: $27.11 ÷ $110.46 = 24.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $10.09 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $135.48 | 3.10% | $4.20 | $16.80 | 41.6% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 16 | $52.83 | 7.70% | $4.07 | $16.28 | 40.3% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 16 | $15.83 | 6.25% | $0.99 | $3.96 | 9.8% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 13 | $4.54 | 12.50% | $0.57 | $2.28 | 5.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $12.95 | 2.00% | $0.26 | $1.04 | 2.6% |
| Total | $10.09 | $40.36 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Pokemon 151, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 199/165
#199/165 · SIR
1 in 226 packs
$436.87
+$7.72 EV
Blastoise ex - 200/165
#200/165 · SIR
1 in 226 packs
$148.57
+$2.64 EV
Venusaur ex - 198/165
#198/165 · SIR
1 in 226 packs
$138.90
+$2.48 EV
Squirtle - 170/165
#170/165 · IR
1 in 208 packs
$105.67
+$2.04 EV
Charmander - 168/165
#168/165 · IR
1 in 208 packs
$105.33
+$2.04 EV
Charmeleon - 169/165
#169/165 · IR
1 in 208 packs
$80.53
+$1.56 EV
Mew ex - 205/165 (151 Metal Card)
#205/165 · RR
1 in 104 packs
$27.36
+$1.04 EV
Charizard ex - 183/165
#183/165 · UR
1 in 256 packs
$48.71
+$0.76 EV
Mew ex - 205/165
#205/165 · HR
1 in 150 packs
$29.13
+$0.76 EV
Mew ex - 193/165
#193/165 · UR
1 in 256 packs
$44.55
+$0.68 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Scarlet-Violet-151-Pull-Rates/b237df74-fbb0-40d0-9e13-d69ee6e804d9/, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-151-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/15/scarlet-violet-151-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $24.99. Current sealed price ($110.46) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($110.46) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151 ETB | $636.03 | $115.08 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 PC ETB | $1387.35 | $420.24 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Booster Bundle | $192.27 | $60.54 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Poster Collection | $81.64 | $31.27 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Binder Collection | $211.74 | $41.36 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Ultra-Premium Collection | $998.59 | $171.44 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Alakazam ex Collection | $110.46 | $42.36 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Zapdos ex Collection | $115.38 | $42.36 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Mini Tin | $45.41 | $20.18 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Sam's Club Mini Tins Bundle | $216.80 | $82.72 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Booster Pack | $27.90 | $10.09 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |