151 Alakazam ex Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $44.42.
4 packs plus $2.00 in promo value produce $46.08 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−49%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $90.50.
Expected Loss
−$44.42
The average opening result after paying $90.50 sealed.
Open Average
$46.08
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$29.49
Expected range $5.55-$16.49 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $11.02
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$11.02 × 4 packs = $44.08
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$44.08 + $2.00 promos = $46.08
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$46.08 × 0.64 = $29.49
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $46.08 ÷ $90.50 = 50.9% • Cash-out: $29.49 ÷ $90.50 = 32.6%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $11.02 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $153.96 | 3.10% | $4.77 | $19.08 | 43.3% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 16 | $59.40 | 7.70% | $4.57 | $18.28 | 41.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 16 | $14.67 | 6.25% | $0.92 | $3.68 | 8.3% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 13 | $4.26 | 12.50% | $0.53 | $2.12 | 4.8% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $11.44 | 2.00% | $0.23 | $0.92 | 2.1% |
| Total | $11.02 | $44.08 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Pokemon 151, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 199/165
#199/165 · SIR
1 in 226 packs
$458.18
+$8.12 EV
Blastoise ex - 200/165
#200/165 · SIR
1 in 226 packs
$187.21
+$3.32 EV
Charmander - 168/165
#168/165 · IR
1 in 208 packs
$146.93
+$2.84 EV
Venusaur ex - 198/165
#198/165 · SIR
1 in 226 packs
$157.42
+$2.80 EV
Squirtle - 170/165
#170/165 · IR
1 in 208 packs
$123.68
+$2.40 EV
Bulbasaur - 166/165
#166/165 · IR
1 in 208 packs
$99.62
+$1.92 EV
Mew ex - 205/165 (151 Metal Card)
#205/165 · RR
1 in 104 packs
$25.68
+$1.00 EV
Charizard ex - 183/165
#183/165 · UR
1 in 256 packs
$52.25
+$0.80 EV
Mew ex - 205/165
#205/165 · HR
1 in 150 packs
$26.85
+$0.72 EV
Mew ex - 193/165
#193/165 · UR
1 in 256 packs
$43.78
+$0.68 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Scarlet-Violet-151-Pull-Rates/b237df74-fbb0-40d0-9e13-d69ee6e804d9/, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-151-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/15/scarlet-violet-151-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $24.99. Current sealed price ($90.50) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($90.50) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151 ETB | $593.04 | $124.67 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 PC ETB | $1150.62 | $385.85 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Booster Bundle | $176.98 | $66.12 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Poster Collection | $61.87 | $34.06 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Binder Collection | $168.98 | $45.08 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Ultra-Premium Collection | $966.95 | $186.32 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Alakazam ex Collection | $90.50 | $46.08 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Zapdos ex Collection | $89.85 | $46.08 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Mini Tin | $32.98 | $22.04 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Sam's Club Mini Tins Bundle | $160.33 | $90.16 | −44% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Booster Pack | $24.39 | $11.02 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |