Paldea Evolved Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $38.15.
4 packs plus $2.53 in promo value produce $14.89 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−72%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $53.04.
Expected Loss
−$38.15
The average opening result after paying $53.04 sealed.
Open Average
$14.89
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$9.53
Expected range $0.00-$6.97 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.09
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$3.09 × 4 packs = $12.36
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$12.36 + $2.53 promos = $14.89
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$14.89 × 0.64 = $9.53
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $14.89 ÷ $53.04 = 28.1% • Cash-out: $9.53 ÷ $53.04 = 18.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.09 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 36 | $26.43 | 7.70% | $2.04 | $8.16 | 66.0% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 15 | $19.50 | 3.10% | $0.60 | $2.40 | 19.4% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 26 | $3.29 | 6.70% | $0.22 | $0.88 | 7.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 17 | $0.89 | 14.30% | $0.13 | $0.52 | 4.2% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 9 | $5.45 | 1.80% | $0.10 | $0.40 | 3.2% |
| Total | $3.09 | $12.36 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldea Evolved, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Magikarp - 203/193
#203/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$303.99
+$2.60 EV
Raichu - 211/193
#211/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$80.64
+$0.68 EV
Tyranitar - 222/193
#222/193 · IR
1 in 468 packs
$64.64
+$0.56 EV
Iono - 269/193
#269/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$51.69
+$0.44 EV
Chi-Yu ex - 259/193
#259/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$37.15
+$0.32 EV
Tinkaton ex - 262/193
#262/193 · SIR
1 in 484 packs
$35.17
+$0.28 EV
Pikachu ex
#063/193 · RR
1 in 119 packs
$3.12
+$0.12 EV
Iono - 254/193
#254/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$12.19
+$0.12 EV
Boss's Orders - 248/193
#248/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$11.36
+$0.12 EV
Dedenne ex - 239/193
#239/193 · UR
1 in 388 packs
$8.86
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldea-Evolved-Pull-Rates/1b7d3e70-9542-4a50-8692-1661e2316521/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldea-evolved-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2025/05/11/paldea-evolved-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($53.04) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($53.04) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.53) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldea Evolved Booster Box | $438.58 | $111.24 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved ETB | $142.78 | $43.57 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved PC ETB | $491.17 | $164.57 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Bundle | $90.19 | $18.54 | −79% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved 3 Pack Blister | $33.71 | $9.77 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Single Pack Blister | $13.49 | $3.34 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Build & Battle Box | $53.04 | $14.89 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Sleeved Booster | $11.24 | $3.09 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Pack | $10.45 | $3.09 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |