Lost Origin Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $44.50.
4 packs plus $2.74 in promo value produce $25.74 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−63%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $70.24.
Expected Loss
−$44.50
The average opening result after paying $70.24 sealed.
Open Average
$25.74
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.47
Expected range $0.00-$29.98 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.75
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 718 pack openings.
$5.75 × 4 packs = $23.00
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$23.00 + $2.74 promos = $25.74
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$25.74 × 0.64 = $16.47
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $25.74 ÷ $70.24 = 36.6% • Cash-out: $16.47 ÷ $70.24 = 23.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.75 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 44 | $22.68 | 23.54% | $5.34 | $21.36 | 92.9% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 21 | $6.72 | 3.20% | $0.22 | $0.88 | 3.8% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 22 | $0.58 | 26.46% | $0.15 | $0.60 | 2.6% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $1.09 | 4.04% | $0.04 | $0.16 | 0.7% |
| Total | $5.75 | $23.00 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Lost Origin, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)
#186/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$669.03
+$14.32 EV
Aerodactyl V (Alternate Full Art)
#180/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$198.64
+$4.24 EV
Rotom V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$28.71
+$0.60 EV
Gengar
#066/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$3.68
+$0.16 EV
Giratina VSTAR (201) (Secret)
#201/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$25.43
+$0.16 EV
Snorlax
#143/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$2.68
+$0.12 EV
Giratina VSTAR (212) (Secret)
#212/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$17.14
+$0.12 EV
Radiant Gardevoir
#069/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$1.48
+$0.08 EV
Radiant Steelix
#124/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$1.20
+$0.08 EV
Aerodactyl VSTAR (Secret)
#199/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$14.47
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 718 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/lost-origin-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($70.24) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($70.24) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($2.74) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Origin Booster Box | $720.90 | $207.00 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin ETB | $184.71 | $47.00 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin PC ETB | $302.56 | $59.50 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Bundle | $140.24 | $34.50 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister | $90.57 | $17.75 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Build & Battle Box | $70.24 | $25.74 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Sleeved Booster | $73.95 | $5.75 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Pack | $14.76 | $5.75 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |