Lost Origin ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $137.71.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $47.00 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−75%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $184.71.
Expected Loss
−$137.71
The average opening result after paying $184.71 sealed.
Open Average
$47.00
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$30.08
Expected range $0.00-$29.98 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.75
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 718 pack openings.
$5.75 × 8 packs = $46.00
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$46.00 + $1.00 promos = $47.00
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$47.00 × 0.64 = $30.08
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $47.00 ÷ $184.71 = 25.4% • Cash-out: $30.08 ÷ $184.71 = 16.3%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.75 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 44 | $22.68 | 23.54% | $5.34 | $42.72 | 92.9% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 21 | $6.72 | 3.20% | $0.22 | $1.76 | 3.8% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 22 | $0.58 | 26.46% | $0.15 | $1.20 | 2.6% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $1.09 | 4.04% | $0.04 | $0.32 | 0.7% |
| Total | $5.75 | $46.00 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Lost Origin, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)
#186/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$669.03
+$28.64 EV
Aerodactyl V (Alternate Full Art)
#180/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$198.64
+$8.48 EV
Rotom V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$28.71
+$1.20 EV
Gengar
#066/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$3.68
+$0.32 EV
Giratina VSTAR (201) (Secret)
#201/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$25.43
+$0.32 EV
Snorlax
#143/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$2.68
+$0.24 EV
Giratina VSTAR (212) (Secret)
#212/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$17.14
+$0.24 EV
Radiant Gardevoir
#069/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$1.48
+$0.16 EV
Radiant Steelix
#124/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$1.20
+$0.16 EV
Aerodactyl VSTAR (Secret)
#199/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$14.47
+$0.16 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 718 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/lost-origin-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($184.71) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($184.71) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Origin Booster Box | $720.90 | $207.00 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin ETB | $184.71 | $47.00 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin PC ETB | $302.56 | $59.50 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Bundle | $140.24 | $34.50 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister | $90.57 | $17.75 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Build & Battle Box | $70.24 | $25.74 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Sleeved Booster | $73.95 | $5.75 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Pack | $14.76 | $5.75 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |