Lost Origin ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $124.27.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $44.76 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−74%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $169.03.
Expected Loss
−$124.27
The average opening result after paying $169.03 sealed.
Open Average
$44.76
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$28.65
Expected range $0.00-$29.76 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.47
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 718 pack openings.
$5.47 × 8 packs = $43.76
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$43.76 + $1.00 promos = $44.76
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$44.76 × 0.64 = $28.65
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $44.76 ÷ $169.03 = 26.5% • Cash-out: $28.65 ÷ $169.03 = 16.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.47 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 44 | $21.77 | 23.54% | $5.12 | $40.96 | 93.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 21 | $6.25 | 3.20% | $0.20 | $1.60 | 3.7% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 22 | $0.44 | 26.46% | $0.12 | $0.96 | 2.2% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $0.82 | 4.04% | $0.03 | $0.24 | 0.5% |
| Total | $5.47 | $43.76 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Lost Origin, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)
#186/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$679.71
+$29.12 EV
Aerodactyl V (Alternate Full Art)
#180/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$161.75
+$6.96 EV
Rotom V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/196 · UR
1 in 187 packs
$24.95
+$1.04 EV
Giratina VSTAR (201) (Secret)
#201/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$24.62
+$0.32 EV
Gengar
#066/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$2.25
+$0.24 EV
Snorlax
#143/196 · H
1 in 83 packs
$1.89
+$0.16 EV
Radiant Gardevoir
#069/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$1.14
+$0.16 EV
Giratina VSTAR (212) (Secret)
#212/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$14.45
+$0.16 EV
Aerodactyl VSTAR (Secret)
#199/196 · SR
1 in 656 packs
$12.61
+$0.16 EV
Radiant Steelix
#124/196 · RR
1 in 74 packs
$0.79
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 718 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/lost-origin-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($169.03) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($169.03) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Origin Booster Box | $731.03 | $196.92 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin ETB | $169.03 | $44.76 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin PC ETB | $237.68 | $56.70 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Bundle | $137.04 | $32.82 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin 3 Pack Blister | $72.53 | $16.91 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Build & Battle Box | $64.33 | $24.67 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Sleeved Booster | $72.03 | $5.47 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Lost Origin Booster Pack | $13.42 | $5.47 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |