Darkness Ablaze Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $52.12.
4 packs plus $7.99 in promo value produce $12.11 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−81%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $64.23.
Expected Loss
−$52.12
The average opening result after paying $64.23 sealed.
Open Average
$12.11
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$7.75
Expected range $0.00-$2.57 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.03
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$1.03 × 4 packs = $4.12
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$4.12 + $7.99 promos = $12.11
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$12.11 × 0.64 = $7.75
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $12.11 ÷ $64.23 = 18.9% • Cash-out: $7.75 ÷ $64.23 = 12.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.03 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 34 | $3.74 | 19.50% | $0.73 | $2.92 | 70.9% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 12 | $7.37 | 2.40% | $0.18 | $0.72 | 17.5% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 18 | $0.54 | 22.00% | $0.12 | $0.48 | 11.7% |
| Total | $1.03 | $4.12 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Darkness Ablaze, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard VMAX
#020/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$47.91
+$1.08 EV
Charizard V
#019/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$7.86
+$0.20 EV
Houndoom V (Full Art)
#178/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$5.03
+$0.12 EV
Butterfree VMAX (Secret)
#190/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$16.37
+$0.12 EV
Salamence VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$14.60
+$0.12 EV
Arctozolt
#066/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$1.49
+$0.08 EV
Eternatus VMAX (Secret)
#192/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$11.57
+$0.08 EV
Suicune
#037/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.97
+$0.04 EV
Blaziken
#024/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.83
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/swsh3/darkness-ablaze/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($64.23) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($64.23) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($7.99) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Box | $322.93 | $37.08 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze ETB | $107.12 | $9.24 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze 3 Pack Blister | $38.08 | $3.59 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Build & Battle Box | $64.23 | $12.11 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Sleeved Booster | $9.99 | $1.03 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Pack | $8.19 | $1.03 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |