Darkness Ablaze ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $91.02.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $8.60 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−91%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $99.62.
Expected Loss
−$91.02
The average opening result after paying $99.62 sealed.
Open Average
$8.60
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$5.50
Expected range $0.00-$2.31 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $0.95
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$0.95 × 8 packs = $7.60
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$7.60 + $1.00 promos = $8.60
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$8.60 × 0.64 = $5.50
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $8.60 ÷ $99.62 = 8.6% • Cash-out: $5.50 ÷ $99.62 = 5.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $0.95 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 34 | $3.46 | 19.50% | $0.68 | $5.44 | 71.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 12 | $6.82 | 2.40% | $0.16 | $1.28 | 16.8% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 18 | $0.50 | 22.00% | $0.11 | $0.88 | 11.6% |
| Total | $0.95 | $7.60 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Darkness Ablaze, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard VMAX
#020/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$42.41
+$1.92 EV
Charizard V
#019/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$7.44
+$0.32 EV
Houndoom V (Full Art)
#178/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$5.16
+$0.24 EV
Butterfree VMAX (Secret)
#190/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$13.64
+$0.24 EV
Salamence VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$13.21
+$0.24 EV
Eternatus VMAX (Secret)
#192/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$10.88
+$0.16 EV
Arctozolt
#066/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$1.21
+$0.08 EV
Suicune
#037/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.92
+$0.08 EV
Dracovish
#053/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.90
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/swsh3/darkness-ablaze/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($99.62) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($99.62) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Box | $324.65 | $34.20 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze ETB | $99.62 | $8.60 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze 3 Pack Blister | $40.97 | $3.35 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Build & Battle Box | $64.23 | $11.87 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Sleeved Booster | $9.74 | $0.95 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Pack | $8.35 | $0.95 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |