Darkness Ablaze ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $97.88.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $9.24 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−91%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $107.12.
Expected Loss
−$97.88
The average opening result after paying $107.12 sealed.
Open Average
$9.24
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$5.91
Expected range $0.00-$2.57 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.03
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$1.03 × 8 packs = $8.24
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$8.24 + $1.00 promos = $9.24
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$9.24 × 0.64 = $5.91
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $9.24 ÷ $107.12 = 8.6% • Cash-out: $5.91 ÷ $107.12 = 5.5%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.03 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 34 | $3.74 | 19.50% | $0.73 | $5.84 | 70.9% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 12 | $7.37 | 2.40% | $0.18 | $1.44 | 17.5% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 18 | $0.54 | 22.00% | $0.12 | $0.96 | 11.7% |
| Total | $1.03 | $8.24 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Darkness Ablaze, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard VMAX
#020/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$47.91
+$2.16 EV
Charizard V
#019/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$7.86
+$0.40 EV
Houndoom V (Full Art)
#178/189 · UR
1 in 174 packs
$5.03
+$0.24 EV
Butterfree VMAX (Secret)
#190/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$16.37
+$0.24 EV
Salamence VMAX (Secret)
#194/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$14.60
+$0.24 EV
Arctozolt
#066/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$1.49
+$0.16 EV
Eternatus VMAX (Secret)
#192/189 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$11.57
+$0.16 EV
Suicune
#037/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.97
+$0.08 EV
Blaziken
#024/189 · H
1 in 82 packs
$0.83
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/swsh3/darkness-ablaze/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($107.12) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($107.12) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Box | $322.93 | $37.08 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze ETB | $107.12 | $9.24 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze 3 Pack Blister | $38.08 | $3.59 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Build & Battle Box | $64.23 | $12.11 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Sleeved Booster | $9.99 | $1.03 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Pack | $8.19 | $1.03 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |