Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $32.93.
4 packs plus $1.98 in promo value produce $13.06 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−72%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $45.99.
Expected Loss
−$32.93
The average opening result after paying $45.99 sealed.
Open Average
$13.06
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$8.36
Expected range $0.00-$11.41 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.77
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 1,004 pack openings.
$2.77 × 4 packs = $11.08
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$11.08 + $1.98 promos = $13.06
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$13.06 × 0.64 = $8.36
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $13.06 ÷ $45.99 = 28.4% • Cash-out: $8.36 ÷ $45.99 = 18.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.77 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 48 | $9.82 | 23.70% | $2.33 | $9.32 | 84.1% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $12.65 | 2.80% | $0.35 | $1.40 | 12.6% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.33 | 26.39% | $0.09 | $0.36 | 3.2% |
| Total | $2.77 | $11.08 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Brilliant Stars, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Alternate Full Art)
#154/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$253.50
+$5.00 EV
Arceus V (Alternate Full Art)
#166/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$47.96
+$0.96 EV
Charizard V (Full Art)
#153/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$26.68
+$0.52 EV
Charizard VSTAR (Secret)
#174/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$63.96
+$0.52 EV
Ultra Ball (Secret)
#186/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$22.80
+$0.20 EV
Galarian Moltres V (Secret)
#183/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$14.05
+$0.12 EV
Lucario
#079/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.58
+$0.08 EV
Boss's Orders
#132/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.46
+$0.04 EV
Garchomp
#109/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.39
+$0.04 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,004 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/02/16/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-for-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $21.99. Current sealed price ($45.99) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($45.99) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.98) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant Stars Booster Box | $586.97 | $99.72 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars ETB | $138.38 | $23.16 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars PC ETB | $190.75 | $29.70 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars 3 Pack Blister | $39.69 | $8.81 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box | $45.99 | $13.06 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster | $12.75 | $2.77 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Booster Pack | $10.84 | $2.77 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |