Brilliant Stars Booster Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $488.91.
36 packs produce $100.44 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−83%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $589.35.
Expected Loss
−$488.91
The average opening result after paying $589.35 sealed.
Open Average
$100.44
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$64.28
Expected range $0.00-$11.60 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.79
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 1,004 pack openings.
$2.79 × 36 packs = $100.44
This product contains 36 booster packs.
$100.44 = $100.44
No promo value applied for this product.
$100.44 × 0.64 = $64.28
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $100.44 ÷ $589.35 = 17.0% • Cash-out: $64.28 ÷ $589.35 = 10.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.79 EV per pack for this 36-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/36pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 48 | $9.92 | 23.70% | $2.35 | $84.60 | 84.2% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $12.50 | 2.80% | $0.35 | $12.60 | 12.5% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.33 | 26.39% | $0.09 | $3.24 | 3.2% |
| Total | $2.79 | $100.44 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Brilliant Stars, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Alternate Full Art)
#154/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$258.50
+$46.08 EV
Arceus V (Alternate Full Art)
#166/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$47.85
+$8.64 EV
Charizard V (Full Art)
#153/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$26.30
+$4.68 EV
Charizard VSTAR (Secret)
#174/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$63.42
+$4.68 EV
Ultra Ball (Secret)
#186/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$21.86
+$1.44 EV
Galarian Moltres V (Secret)
#183/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$13.92
+$1.08 EV
Lucario
#079/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.58
+$0.72 EV
Boss's Orders
#132/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.47
+$0.36 EV
Garchomp
#109/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.38
+$0.36 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,004 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/02/16/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-for-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $143.64. Current sealed price ($589.35) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($589.35) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant Stars Booster Box | $589.35 | $100.44 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars ETB | $139.34 | $23.32 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars PC ETB | $193.15 | $29.90 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars 3 Pack Blister | $39.69 | $8.87 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box | $45.99 | $13.14 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster | $12.71 | $2.79 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Booster Pack | $10.84 | $2.79 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |