Brilliant Stars Booster Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $473.38.
36 packs produce $119.16 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−80%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $592.54.
Expected Loss
−$473.38
The average opening result after paying $592.54 sealed.
Open Average
$119.16
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$76.26
Expected range $0.00-$14.24 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.31
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 1,004 pack openings.
$3.31 × 36 packs = $119.16
This product contains 36 booster packs.
$119.16 = $119.16
No promo value applied for this product.
$119.16 × 0.64 = $76.26
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $119.16 ÷ $592.54 = 20.1% • Cash-out: $76.26 ÷ $592.54 = 12.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.31 EV per pack for this 36-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/36pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 48 | $11.89 | 23.70% | $2.82 | $101.52 | 85.2% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $14.35 | 2.80% | $0.40 | $14.40 | 12.1% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.34 | 26.39% | $0.09 | $3.24 | 2.7% |
| Total | $3.31 | $119.16 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Brilliant Stars, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Alternate Full Art)
#154/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$320.98
+$56.88 EV
Arceus V (Alternate Full Art)
#166/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$53.42
+$9.36 EV
Charizard V (Full Art)
#153/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$37.19
+$6.48 EV
Charizard VSTAR (Secret)
#174/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$77.81
+$5.76 EV
Ultra Ball (Secret)
#186/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$21.27
+$1.44 EV
Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (184)
#184/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$16.40
+$1.08 EV
Lucario
#079/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.63
+$0.72 EV
Boss's Orders
#132/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.49
+$0.36 EV
Garchomp
#109/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.42
+$0.36 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,004 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/02/16/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-for-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $143.64. Current sealed price ($592.54) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($592.54) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant Stars Booster Box | $592.54 | $119.16 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars ETB | $143.85 | $27.48 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars PC ETB | $222.64 | $35.10 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars 3 Pack Blister | $41.32 | $10.43 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box | $47.43 | $15.28 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster | $15.36 | $3.31 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Booster Pack | $11.32 | $3.31 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Boxs Across Sets
See how this box stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Box | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perfect Order Booster Box | Perfect Order | $202.46 | $100.08 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Battle Styles Booster Box | Battle Styles | $256.88 | $99.72 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Booster Box | Phantasmal Flames | $384.35 | $135.00 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Temporal Forces Booster Box | Temporal Forces | $293.46 | $101.88 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet Booster Box | Scarlet & Violet | $251.97 | $86.76 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldea Evolved Booster Box | Paldea Evolved | $443.90 | $136.80 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown Booster Box | Stellar Crown | $307.58 | $93.24 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Twilight Masquerade Booster Box | Twilight Masquerade | $339.15 | $99.00 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |