Brilliant Stars ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $116.37.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $27.48 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−81%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $143.85.
Expected Loss
−$116.37
The average opening result after paying $143.85 sealed.
Open Average
$27.48
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$17.59
Expected range $0.00-$14.24 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.31
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 1,004 pack openings.
$3.31 × 8 packs = $26.48
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$26.48 + $1.00 promos = $27.48
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$27.48 × 0.64 = $17.59
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $27.48 ÷ $143.85 = 19.1% • Cash-out: $17.59 ÷ $143.85 = 12.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.31 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 48 | $11.89 | 23.70% | $2.82 | $22.56 | 85.2% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $14.35 | 2.80% | $0.40 | $3.20 | 12.1% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.34 | 26.39% | $0.09 | $0.72 | 2.7% |
| Total | $3.31 | $26.48 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Brilliant Stars, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Alternate Full Art)
#154/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$320.98
+$12.64 EV
Arceus V (Alternate Full Art)
#166/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$53.42
+$2.08 EV
Charizard V (Full Art)
#153/172 · UR
1 in 203 packs
$37.19
+$1.44 EV
Charizard VSTAR (Secret)
#174/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$77.81
+$1.28 EV
Ultra Ball (Secret)
#186/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$21.27
+$0.32 EV
Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (184)
#184/172 · SR
1 in 500 packs
$16.40
+$0.24 EV
Lucario
#079/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.63
+$0.16 EV
Boss's Orders
#132/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.49
+$0.08 EV
Garchomp
#109/172 · H
1 in 38 packs
$0.42
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,004 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pokepatch.com/2022/02/16/brilliant-stars-pull-rates-for-new-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($143.85) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($143.85) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant Stars Booster Box | $592.54 | $119.16 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars ETB | $143.85 | $27.48 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars PC ETB | $222.64 | $35.10 | −84% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars 3 Pack Blister | $41.32 | $10.43 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Build & Battle Box | $47.43 | $15.28 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Sleeved Booster | $15.36 | $3.31 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Brilliant Stars Booster Pack | $11.32 | $3.31 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |