Black Bolt Binder Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $31.54.
4 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $20.04 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−61%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $51.58.
Expected Loss
−$31.54
The average opening result after paying $51.58 sealed.
Open Average
$20.04
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$12.83
Expected range $1.14-$8.38 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.76
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 700 pack openings.
$4.76 × 4 packs = $19.04
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$19.04 + $1.00 promos = $20.04
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$20.04 × 0.64 = $12.83
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $20.04 ÷ $51.58 = 38.9% • Cash-out: $12.83 ÷ $51.58 = 24.9%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.76 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 69 | $16.33 | 16.40% | $2.68 | $10.72 | 56.3% |
| Black White Rare(BWR) | 2 | $473.07 | 0.20% | $0.95 | $3.80 | 20.0% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $71.30 | 1.25% | $0.89 | $3.56 | 18.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $0.60 | 21.10% | $0.13 | $0.52 | 2.7% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8 | $1.98 | 5.80% | $0.11 | $0.44 | 2.3% |
| Total | $4.76 | $19.04 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Black Bolt, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Victini - 171/086
#171/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$496.32
+$2.00 EV
Zekrom ex - 172/086
#172/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$449.82
+$1.80 EV
Seismitoad - 105/086
#105/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$173.41
+$1.64 EV
Zekrom ex - 166/086
#166/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$223.95
+$1.60 EV
Haxorus - 147/086
#147/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$58.65
+$0.56 EV
Kyurem ex - 165/086
#165/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$68.33
+$0.48 EV
Krookodile - 137/086
#137/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$45.35
+$0.44 EV
N's Plan - 170/086
#170/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$61.09
+$0.44 EV
Zekrom ex - 158/086
#158/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$4.26
+$0.12 EV
N's Plan - 163/086
#163/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$3.89
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 700 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Black-Bolt-and-White-Flare-Pull-Rates/bac92199-a2a7-4668-b4a4-2647a111776f/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-odds/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/07/20/black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-sets/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($51.58) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($51.58) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Bolt ETB | $125.10 | $44.77 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt PC ETB | $280.18 | $75.84 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Bundle | $61.99 | $28.56 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Binder Collection | $51.58 | $20.04 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Poster Collection | $54.28 | $15.28 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | $56.95 | $25.80 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | $19.57 | $9.52 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | $128.79 | $57.36 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | $10.16 | $4.76 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes First Partners Deluxe Pin Collection | Ascended Heroes | $52.63 | $24.29 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |