Black Bolt Binder Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $40.00.
4 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $17.32 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−70%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $57.32.
Expected Loss
−$40.00
The average opening result after paying $57.32 sealed.
Open Average
$17.32
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$11.08
Expected range $1.23-$6.93 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $4.08
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 700 pack openings.
$4.08 × 4 packs = $16.32
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$16.32 + $1.00 promos = $17.32
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$17.32 × 0.64 = $11.08
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $17.32 ÷ $57.32 = 30.2% • Cash-out: $11.08 ÷ $57.32 = 19.3%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.08 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 69 | $13.99 | 16.40% | $2.29 | $9.16 | 56.1% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 7 | $66.02 | 1.25% | $0.83 | $3.32 | 20.3% |
| Black White Rare(BWR) | 2 | $373.53 | 0.20% | $0.75 | $3.00 | 18.4% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 6 | $0.52 | 21.10% | $0.11 | $0.44 | 2.7% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8 | $1.76 | 5.80% | $0.10 | $0.40 | 2.5% |
| Total | $4.08 | $16.32 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Black Bolt, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Victini - 171/086
#171/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$391.49
+$1.56 EV
Zekrom ex - 166/086
#166/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$201.12
+$1.44 EV
Zekrom ex - 172/086
#172/086 · BWR
1 in 1000 packs
$355.56
+$1.44 EV
Seismitoad - 105/086
#105/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$135.24
+$1.28 EV
Haxorus - 147/086
#147/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$50.29
+$0.48 EV
Kyurem ex - 165/086
#165/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$65.26
+$0.48 EV
N's Plan - 170/086
#170/086 · SIR
1 in 560 packs
$58.07
+$0.40 EV
Krookodile - 137/086
#137/086 · IR
1 in 421 packs
$35.02
+$0.32 EV
N's Plan - 163/086
#163/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$3.70
+$0.12 EV
Zekrom ex - 158/086
#158/086 · UR
1 in 138 packs
$3.55
+$0.12 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 700 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Black-Bolt-and-White-Flare-Pull-Rates/bac92199-a2a7-4668-b4a4-2647a111776f/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-odds/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/07/20/black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-sets/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($57.32) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($57.32) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Bolt ETB | $101.42 | $38.11 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt PC ETB | $228.49 | $65.35 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Bundle | $62.18 | $24.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Binder Collection | $57.32 | $17.32 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | $30.56 | $12.99 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Poster Collection | $34.53 | $13.24 | −62% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | $46.15 | $22.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | $17.91 | $8.16 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | $115.44 | $34.66 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | $9.69 | $4.08 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |