Rip or Flip
Black Bolt ETB

Price Snapshot

Current Market

$101.42

MSRP

$49.99

Spread: +$51.43 (103%) above MSRP

Buy on TCGPlayer →
KEEP SEALEDBlack Bolt9 packs+ $1.39 promos

Black Bolt ETB

Average opening value trails the buy-in by $63.31.

9 packs plus $1.39 in promo value produce $38.11 of average market value.

Return vs Market

−62%

Compared with today's sealed market price of $101.42.

Expected Loss

−$63.31

The average opening result after paying $101.42 sealed.

Open Average

$38.11

Average market value from packs and included promos.

Cash-out EV

$24.39

Expected range $1.23-$6.93 per pack.

Prices just now · EV just now · Medium confidence

Price History

Recent sealed price movement for this product.

Sealed History

Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.

How the EV is Calculated

Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.

01

EV per booster pack = $4.08

Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 700 pack openings.

02

$4.08 × 9 packs = $36.72

This product contains 9 booster packs.

03

$36.72 + $1.39 promos = $38.11

Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.

04

$38.11 × 0.64 = $24.39

Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.

05

Market: $38.11 ÷ $101.42 = 37.6%Cash-out: $24.39 ÷ $101.42 = 24.1%

Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.

EV by Rarity Tier

Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $4.08 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.

RarityCardsAvg ValuePull RateEV/PackEV/9pk% of Total
Illustration Rare(IR)69$13.9916.40%$2.29$20.6156.1%
Special Illustration Rare(SIR)7$66.021.25%$0.83$7.4720.3%
Black White Rare(BWR)2$373.530.20%$0.75$6.7518.4%
Double Rare(RR)6$0.5221.10%$0.11$0.992.7%
Ultra Rare(UR)8$1.765.80%$0.10$0.902.5%
Total$4.08$36.72100%

Promo Cards

Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.

$1.39 total promo EV

Top 10 Cards You Could Pull

The most valuable cards in Black Bolt, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.

Assumptions

Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.

Expand assumptions
  • Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
  • Pull rates are community-sourced from 700 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Black-Bolt-and-White-Flare-Pull-Rates/bac92199-a2a7-4668-b4a4-2647a111776f/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-odds/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/07/20/black-bolt-white-flare-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-sets/). Your results will vary.
  • MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($101.42) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
  • Sealed price ($101.42) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
  • Promo value ($1.39) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
  • Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
  • EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.

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Other Products in This Set

ProductPriceMarket EVReturnVerdict
Black Bolt ETB$101.42$38.11−62%KEEP SEALED
Black Bolt PC ETB$228.49$65.35−71%KEEP SEALED
Black Bolt Booster Bundle$62.18$24.48−61%KEEP SEALED
Black Bolt Binder Collection$57.32$17.32−70%KEEP SEALED
Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection$30.56$12.99−57%KEEP SEALED
Unova Poster Collection$34.53$13.24−62%KEEP SEALED
Unova Victini Illustration Collection$46.15$22.40−51%KEEP SEALED
Unova Mini Tin$17.91$8.16−54%KEEP SEALED
Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection$115.44$34.66−70%KEEP SEALED
Black Bolt Booster Pack$9.69$4.08−58%KEEP SEALED
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