Ascended Heroes Mega ex Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $43.57.
4 packs plus $0.65 in promo value produce $26.13 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−63%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $69.70.
Expected Loss
−$43.57
The average opening result after paying $69.70 sealed.
Open Average
$26.13
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$16.72
Expected range $2.54-$10.20 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $6.37
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 2,000 pack openings.
$6.37 × 4 packs = $25.48
This product contains 4 booster packs.
$25.48 + $0.65 promos = $26.13
Promo value uses static estimate.
$26.13 × 0.64 = $16.72
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $26.13 ÷ $69.70 = 37.5% • Cash-out: $16.72 ÷ $69.70 = 24.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $6.37 EV per pack for this 4-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/4pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 22 | $191.22 | 1.44% | $2.75 | $11.00 | 43.2% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 33 | $12.09 | 11.25% | $1.36 | $5.44 | 21.4% |
| Mega Attack Rare(MAR) | 7 | $24.88 | 3.47% | $0.86 | $3.44 | 13.5% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $406.37 | 0.19% | $0.77 | $3.08 | 12.1% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 39 | $1.91 | 20.37% | $0.39 | $1.56 | 6.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 14 | $4.96 | 4.81% | $0.24 | $0.96 | 3.8% |
| Total | $6.37 | $25.48 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Ascended Heroes, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Gengar ex - 284/217
#284/217 · SIR
1 in 1528 packs
$1030.48
+$2.68 EV
Mega Charizard Y ex - 294/217
#294/217 · MHR
1 in 1053 packs
$490.77
+$1.88 EV
Mega Dragonite ex - 290/217
#290/217 · SIR
1 in 1528 packs
$624.47
+$1.64 EV
Mega Gengar ex - 269/217
#269/217 · MAR
1 in 202 packs
$67.65
+$1.36 EV
Pikachu ex - 276/217
#276/217 · SIR
1 in 1528 packs
$514.81
+$1.36 EV
Mega Dragonite ex - 295/217
#295/217 · MHR
1 in 1053 packs
$321.97
+$1.24 EV
Mega Dragonite ex - 271/217
#271/217 · MAR
1 in 202 packs
$51.71
+$1.04 EV
Psyduck - 226/217
#226/217 · IR
1 in 293 packs
$72.42
+$1.00 EV
Erika's Tangela - 218/217
#218/217 · IR
1 in 293 packs
$28.34
+$0.40 EV
Team Rocket's Mimikyu - 238/217
#238/217 · IR
1 in 293 packs
$25.69
+$0.36 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 2,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pok%C3%A9mon-TCG-Ascended-Heroes-Pull-Rates/60143d94-88a7-42ce-8e73-babd7b3fabd6/, https://www.pokebeach.com/2026/02/ascended-heroes-pull-rates-finally-determined-better-than-usual, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/me2pt5/ascended-heroes/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $24.99. Current sealed price ($69.70) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($69.70) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($0.65) is based on static estimate.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes ETB | $113.92 | $62.96 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | $316.85 | $127.17 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Booster Bundle | $76.60 | $38.22 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Tech Sticker Collection | $168.90 | $19.86 | −88% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Mini Tin | $24.86 | $12.74 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Premium Poster Collection | $145.35 | $73.39 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Mega ex Box | $69.70 | $26.13 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | $23.99 | $13.74 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | $22.43 | $13.74 | −39% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes First Partners Deluxe Pin Collection | $67.40 | $21.11 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | $11.48 | $6.37 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |