Scarlet & Violet ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $82.47.
9 packs plus $5.83 in promo value produce $23.56 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−78%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $106.03.
Expected Loss
−$82.47
The average opening result after paying $106.03 sealed.
Open Average
$23.56
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$15.08
Expected range $0.88-$3.06 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.97
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$1.97 × 9 packs = $17.73
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$17.73 + $5.83 promos = $23.56
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$23.56 × 0.64 = $15.08
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $23.56 ÷ $106.03 = 22.2% • Cash-out: $15.08 ÷ $106.03 = 14.2%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.97 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 24 | $13.25 | 7.70% | $1.02 | $9.18 | 51.8% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $16.96 | 3.10% | $0.53 | $4.77 | 26.9% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 20 | $3.08 | 6.70% | $0.21 | $1.89 | 10.7% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $5.86 | 1.90% | $0.11 | $0.99 | 5.6% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 12 | $0.68 | 14.30% | $0.10 | $0.90 | 5.1% |
| Total | $1.97 | $17.73 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Scarlet & Violet, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Gardevoir ex - 245/198
#245/198 · SIR
1 in 323 packs
$74.40
+$2.07 EV
Drowzee - 210/198
#210/198 · IR
1 in 312 packs
$39.74
+$1.17 EV
Kirlia - 212/198
#212/198 · IR
1 in 312 packs
$36.26
+$1.08 EV
Ralts - 211/198
#211/198 · IR
1 in 312 packs
$33.80
+$0.99 EV
Miriam - 251/198
#251/198 · SIR
1 in 323 packs
$23.26
+$0.63 EV
Miraidon ex - 244/198
#244/198 · SIR
1 in 323 packs
$19.48
+$0.54 EV
Arcanine ex - 224/198
#224/198 · UR
1 in 299 packs
$10.14
+$0.27 EV
Gyarados ex - 225/198
#225/198 · UR
1 in 299 packs
$8.08
+$0.27 EV
Basic Fighting Energy - 258/198
#258/198 · HR
1 in 316 packs
$8.23
+$0.27 EV
Gyarados ex - 045/198
#045/198 · RR
1 in 84 packs
$1.27
+$0.18 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Scarlet-Violet-Pull-Rates/a7702fce-dd64-4a58-beb1-0f871c853215/, https://www.digitaltq.com/scarlet-violet-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://cardshoplive.com/pages/hit-rates-for-pokemon-tcg-scarlet-and-violet). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($106.03) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($106.03) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($5.83) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet Booster Box | $267.37 | $70.92 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet ETB | $106.03 | $23.56 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | $298.23 | $137.53 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet Booster Bundle | $77.24 | $11.82 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet 3 Pack Blister | $25.41 | $6.41 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet Single Pack Blister | $9.37 | $2.22 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet Build & Battle Box | $36.86 | $11.22 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet Sleeved Booster | $43.53 | $1.97 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet Booster Pack | $7.85 | $1.97 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |