Champion's Path Special Pin Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $153.35.
5 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $11.30 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−93%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $164.65.
Expected Loss
−$153.35
The average opening result after paying $164.65 sealed.
Open Average
$11.30
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$7.23
Expected range $0.00-$4.47 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.06
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$2.06 × 5 packs = $10.30
This product contains 5 booster packs.
$10.30 + $1.00 promos = $11.30
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$11.30 × 0.64 = $7.23
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $11.30 ÷ $164.65 = 6.9% • Cash-out: $7.23 ÷ $164.65 = 4.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.06 EV per pack for this 5-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/5pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare(SR) | 7 | $65.67 | 2.50% | $1.64 | $8.20 | 79.6% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 19 | $1.86 | 18.00% | $0.33 | $1.65 | 16.0% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.27 | 35.00% | $0.09 | $0.45 | 4.4% |
| Total | $2.06 | $10.30 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Champion's Path, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Secret)
#79/73 · SR
1 in 280 packs
$254.65
+$4.55 EV
Charizard VMAX (Secret)
#74/73 · SR
1 in 280 packs
$172.49
+$3.10 EV
Gardevoir VMAX (Secret)
#76/73 · SR
1 in 280 packs
$15.67
+$0.30 EV
Alcremie VMAX
#23/73 · UR
1 in 106 packs
$5.32
+$0.25 EV
Gardevoir V (Full Art)
#70/73 · UR
1 in 106 packs
$3.40
+$0.15 EV
Gardevoir VMAX
#17/73 · UR
1 in 106 packs
$3.37
+$0.15 EV
Marnie
#56/73 · H
1 in 29 packs
$0.50
+$0.10 EV
Hatterene
#20/73 · H
1 in 29 packs
$0.32
+$0.05 EV
Zygarde
#28/73 · H
1 in 29 packs
$0.28
+$0.05 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.pokebeach.com/2020/09/full-champions-path-set-list-shiny-charizard-v-rainbow-rare-charizard-vmax, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/champions-path). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($164.65) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($164.65) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion's Path ETB | $166.96 | $32.17 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Pin Collection | $52.44 | $6.68 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Special Pin Collection | $164.65 | $11.30 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Collection | $55.71 | $9.24 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Premium Collection | $122.99 | $17.42 | −86% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Booster Pack | $18.18 | $2.06 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.68 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $15.86 | −33% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $24.57 | $15.86 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.56 | $21.25 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.77 | $20.49 | −47% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $57.18 | $27.65 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $32.14 | $15.03 | −53% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together Build & Battle Box | Journey Together | $33.66 | $15.65 | −54% | KEEP SEALED |