Origins Booster Pack
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $3.32.
1 packs produce $10.07 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−25%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $13.39.
Expected Loss
−$3.32
The average opening result after paying $13.39 sealed.
Open Average
$10.07
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$6.44
Expected range $2.13-$18.01 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $10.07
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$10.07 × 1 packs = $10.07
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$10.07 = $10.07
No promo value applied for this product.
$10.07 × 0.64 = $6.44
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $10.07 ÷ $13.39 = 75.2% • Cash-out: $6.44 ÷ $13.39 = 48.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $10.07 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epic(E) | 42 | $20.75 | 15.14% | $3.14 | $3.14 | 31.2% |
| Rare(R) | 84 | $1.71 | 175.00% | $3.00 | $3.00 | 29.8% |
| Overnumbered(OVN) | 12 | $111.23 | 1.39% | $1.55 | $1.55 | 15.4% |
| Signature(SIG) | 12 | $996.51 | 0.14% | $1.39 | $1.39 | 13.8% |
| Alternate Art(AA) | 30 | $11.91 | 8.33% | $0.99 | $0.99 | 9.8% |
| Total | $10.07 | $10.07 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Origins, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Thousand-Tailed Watcher
#116/298 · R
1 in 48 packs
$27.41
+$0.57 EV
Kai'Sa - Survivor
#039/298 · E
1 in 277 packs
$89.57
+$0.32 EV
Dazzling Aurora
#160/298 · E
1 in 277 packs
$87.61
+$0.32 EV
Zhonya's Hourglass
#077/298 · R
1 in 48 packs
$14.87
+$0.31 EV
Time Warp
#122/298 · E
1 in 277 packs
$80.67
+$0.29 EV
Kai'Sa - Survivor (Alternate Art)
#039a/298 · AA
1 in 360 packs
$101.69
+$0.28 EV
Ahri - Nine-Tailed Fox (Overnumbered)
#303/298 · OVN
1 in 863 packs
$234.01
+$0.27 EV
Kai'Sa - Daughter of the Void (Signature)
#299*/298 · SIG
1 in 8633 packs
$2327.96
+$0.27 EV
Sabotage
#156/298 · R
1 in 48 packs
$12.06
+$0.25 EV
Kai'Sa - Daughter of the Void (Overnumbered)
#299/298 · OVN
1 in 863 packs
$201.91
+$0.23 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://riftbound.leagueoflegends.com/en-us/news/announcements/collectability-in-riftbound-origins/, https://cardgamer.com/guides/riftbound-pull-rates/, https://techraptor.net/tabletop/guides/understanding-riftbound-rarity-and-booster-odds). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.99. Current sealed price ($13.39) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($13.39) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Origins Booster Box | $284.18 | $241.68 | −15% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Champion Deck (Jinx) | $32.33 | $14.07 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Champion Deck (Viktor) | $63.07 | $20.07 | −68% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Champion Deck (Lee Sin) | $32.80 | $13.07 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Booster Pack | $13.39 | $10.07 | −25% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Sleeved Booster Pack | $12.03 | $10.07 | −16% | KEEP SEALED |