Sword & Shield ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $170.55.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $14.68 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−92%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $185.23.
Expected Loss
−$170.55
The average opening result after paying $185.23 sealed.
Open Average
$14.68
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$9.40
Expected range $0.00-$3.83 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.71
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$1.71 × 8 packs = $13.68
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$13.68 + $1.00 promos = $14.68
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$14.68 × 0.64 = $9.40
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $14.68 ÷ $185.23 = 7.9% • Cash-out: $9.40 ÷ $185.23 = 5.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.71 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 37 | $5.83 | 19.50% | $1.14 | $9.12 | 66.7% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $15.70 | 2.40% | $0.38 | $3.04 | 22.2% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 17 | $0.88 | 22.00% | $0.19 | $1.52 | 11.1% |
| Total | $1.71 | $13.68 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Sword & Shield, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Snorlax VMAX
#142/202 · UR
1 in 190 packs
$51.37
+$2.16 EV
Marnie (Full Art)
#200/202 · UR
1 in 190 packs
$36.99
+$1.52 EV
Snorlax V (Full Art)
#197/202 · UR
1 in 190 packs
$28.38
+$1.20 EV
Snorlax VMAX (Secret)
#206/202 · SR
1 in 583 packs
$84.68
+$1.20 EV
Gengar
#085/202 · H
1 in 77 packs
$6.77
+$0.72 EV
Marnie (Secret)
#208/202 · SR
1 in 583 packs
$20.14
+$0.24 EV
Zacian V (Secret)
#211/202 · SR
1 in 583 packs
$16.11
+$0.24 EV
Toxicroak
#124/202 · H
1 in 77 packs
$1.02
+$0.08 EV
Marnie
#169/202 · H
1 in 77 packs
$0.85
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($185.23) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($185.23) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword & Shield Booster Box | $680.56 | $61.56 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield ETB | $185.23 | $14.68 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield 3 Pack Blister | $49.99 | $5.63 | −89% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield Build & Battle Box | $68.28 | $13.63 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield Sleeved Booster | $12.98 | $1.71 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield Booster Pack | $9.09 | $1.71 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |