Sword & Shield ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $165.77.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $13.00 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−93%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $178.77.
Expected Loss
−$165.77
The average opening result after paying $178.77 sealed.
Open Average
$13.00
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$8.32
Expected range $0.00-$3.29 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.50
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$1.50 × 8 packs = $12.00
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$12.00 + $1.00 promos = $13.00
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$13.00 × 0.64 = $8.32
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $13.00 ÷ $178.77 = 7.3% • Cash-out: $8.32 ÷ $178.77 = 4.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.50 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 37 | $5.01 | 19.50% | $0.98 | $7.84 | 65.3% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 14 | $14.69 | 2.40% | $0.35 | $2.80 | 23.3% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 17 | $0.79 | 22.00% | $0.17 | $1.36 | 11.3% |
| Total | $1.50 | $12.00 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Sword & Shield, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Snorlax VMAX
#142/202 · UR
1 in 190 packs
$42.65
+$1.76 EV
Marnie (Full Art)
#200/202 · UR
1 in 190 packs
$34.94
+$1.44 EV
Snorlax VMAX (Secret)
#206/202 · SR
1 in 583 packs
$77.99
+$1.04 EV
Snorlax V (Full Art)
#197/202 · UR
1 in 190 packs
$19.68
+$0.80 EV
Gengar
#085/202 · H
1 in 77 packs
$5.47
+$0.56 EV
Marnie (Secret)
#208/202 · SR
1 in 583 packs
$18.51
+$0.24 EV
Zacian V (Secret)
#211/202 · SR
1 in 583 packs
$16.68
+$0.24 EV
Toxicroak
#124/202 · H
1 in 77 packs
$1.03
+$0.08 EV
Marnie
#169/202 · H
1 in 77 packs
$0.83
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($178.77) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($178.77) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword & Shield Booster Box | $668.86 | $54.00 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield ETB | $178.77 | $13.00 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield 3 Pack Blister | $49.99 | $5.00 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield Build & Battle Box | $65.62 | $12.43 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield Sleeved Booster | $12.28 | $1.50 | −88% | KEEP SEALED |
| Sword & Shield Booster Pack | $7.85 | $1.50 | −81% | KEEP SEALED |